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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ 49ers week 17, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
11-4
26
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
23
SF49ers
6-9
SF logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
3
0
20
26
49ers
0
3
6
14
23

Spread

SF logo
+7

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
280
328
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
4.3
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.01
Passing Yards
159
242
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.18
Rushing Yards
121
86
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.25
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-22
-31
Sack EPA
-2.35
-9.64
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
35
25
Penalty EPA
-3.21
-3.25

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-129
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,620
Home Field
-0.7
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.8
Home QB Adjustment
-20.7
Away QB Adjustment
-2.8
Market Regression
-45.3
Final Difference
-165.2
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
Value
Ptile
10/25
6.8
87
11/01
7.8
91
11/08
1.9
58
11/15
-5.8
12
11/19
1.8
57
11/30
0.4
49
12/06
-2.1
28
12/13
1.7
55
12/20
0.3
48
12/27
-0.1
45
C. Beathard headshot

C. Beathard

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-20.7
Value
Ptile
10/29
-8.6
6
11/05
-5.8
16
11/12
6.3
88
11/26
-4.9
20
09/30
1.0
53
10/07
1.4
56
10/15
1.5
57
10/21
-11.3
2
10/28
-5.0
18
12/26
-0.7
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
17
Yards / Game
18
4
Passing Yards / Game
7
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8

EPA

EPA / Play
6
11
EPA / Pass
12
8
EPA / Rush
7
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
2
6
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
3
4th Down Efficiency
18
25
RZ Efficiency
3
9
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
21
16
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
13
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5

EPA

EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
16
22
EPA / Rush
22
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
30
14
Fumbles / Game
27
17
Turnover EPA / Game
2
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
7
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-3
L
L
O
11/01
10
W
W
O
11/08
-10
L
L
O
11/15
-7
L
L
U
11/19
7
W
W
U
11/30
6
W
L
U
12/06
-5
L
L
U
12/13
37
W
W
U
12/20
5
W
L
U
12/27
11
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
8
W
W
U
10/25
27
W
W
U
11/01
-10
L
L
O
11/05
-17
L
L
O
11/15
-14
L
L
U
11/29
3
W
W
U
12/07
-10
L
L
O
12/13
-8
L
L
U
12/20
-8
L
L
O
12/26
8
W
W
U