SEASeahawks
11-4
26
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
023
SF49ers
6-9
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
3
0
20
26
49ers
0
3
6
14
23
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
280
328
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
4.3
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.01
Passing Yards
159
242
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.18
Rushing Yards
121
86
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.25
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-22
-31
Sack EPA
-2.35
-9.64
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
35
25
Penalty EPA
-3.21
-3.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model72.2%
Spread Pick
49ers+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-131
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
-0.7
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.8
Home QB Adjustment
-20.7
Away QB Adjustment
-2.8
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-165.5
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
C. Beathard
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-20.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
17
Yards / Game
18
4
Passing Yards / Game
7
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8
EPA
EPA / Play
6
11
EPA / Pass
12
8
EPA / Rush
7
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
2
6
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
3
4th Down Efficiency
18
25
RZ Efficiency
3
9
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
16
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
13
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5
EPA
EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
16
22
EPA / Rush
22
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
30
14
Fumbles / Game
27
17
Turnover EPA / Game
2
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U