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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ broncos week 1, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
-
24
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
84°F
5 mph
27
DENBroncos
-
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
84°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
3
7
7
24
Broncos
7
10
3
7
27

Spread

SEA logo
DEN logo
3
P

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
306
470
Total Plays
55
72
Yards / Play
5.6
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.04
Passing Yards
242
324
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.10
Rushing Yards
64
146
Rush Attempts
16
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.49
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
13
25
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
17%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.01
-16.48
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-56
-5
Sack EPA
-8.35
-1.70
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
45
60
Penalty EPA
-8.01
-7.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+26
Home nfelo
1,450
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+77.0
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.7
Home QB Adjustment
+24.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
+43.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Value
Ptile
10/29
10.7
98
11/05
2.2
68
11/09
0.3
54
11/20
6.7
90
11/26
3.3
76
12/03
5.7
87
12/10
2.4
69
12/17
-7.3
11
12/24
-3.0
32
12/31
2.5
70
C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.2
Value
Ptile
11/12
5.4
86
11/19
6.8
90
11/23
5.8
87
12/03
2.9
73
12/10
-2.9
33
12/17
5.5
86
12/23
-6.5
14
12/31
0.2
54
01/14
0.9
59
01/21
-1.5
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Broncos Defense
Seahawks logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
7
12
Yards / Game
18
22
Passing Yards / Game
19
28
Rushing Yards / Game
1
22

EPA

EPA / Play
6
10
EPA / Pass
8
17
EPA / Rush
5
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
2
3
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
17
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
6
14
Broncos Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Broncos logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
24
13
Yards / Game
19
19
Passing Yards / Game
14
24
Rushing Yards / Game
11
18

EPA

EPA / Play
22
19
EPA / Pass
26
11
EPA / Rush
8
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
8
Interceptions / Game
23
19
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
21
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
5
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
18
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
3
W
L
O
11/05
-3
L
L
U
11/09
6
W
P
U
11/20
-3
L
L
O
11/26
11
W
W
U
12/03
14
W
W
U
12/10
-6
L
L
O
12/17
-35
L
L
O
12/24
9
W
W
U
12/31
-2
L
L
O
DEN logo

Broncos

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
-10
L
L
O
11/05
-28
L
L
O
11/12
-25
L
L
O
11/19
-3
L
L
U
11/26
-7
L
L
U
12/03
-26
L
L
O
12/10
23
W
W
U
12/14
12
W
W
U
12/24
-16
L
L
U
12/31
-3
L
L
O