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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ buccaneers week 10, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
6-3
16
TBD
Allianz Arena
70°F
0
21
TBBuccaneers
4-5
TB logo
TBD
Allianz Arena
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
0
3
13
16
Buccaneers
0
14
0
7
21

Spread

TB logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
283
419
Total Plays
51
74
Yards / Play
5.5
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.11
Passing Yards
244
--
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.35
Rushing Yards
39
161
Rush Attempts
14
44
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
19
26
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
11%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
1
10
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.58
-8.96
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-7.62
--
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
46
40
Penalty EPA
-7.74
-7.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,571
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+21.1
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.1
Net QB Adjustment
-13.5
Home QB Adjustment
-2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.5
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
Value
Ptile
10/31
1.2
61
09/12
3.1
76
09/18
-2.0
37
09/25
2.3
70
10/02
11.2
98
10/09
4.1
81
10/16
-3.9
24
10/23
-0.1
51
10/30
1.8
66
11/06
3.6
79
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
Value
Ptile
01/23
-1.1
44
09/11
-1.8
39
09/18
-2.1
36
09/25
2.4
72
10/02
9.9
96
10/09
4.3
83
10/16
0.0
53
10/23
1.3
61
10/27
-0.4
50
11/06
3.2
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Seahawks logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
15
Yards / Game
13
10
Passing Yards / Game
8
21
Rushing Yards / Game
18
15

EPA

EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
15
19
EPA / Rush
16
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
32
Interceptions / Game
12
27
Fumbles / Game
27
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
6
25
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Buccaneers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
25
25
Yards / Game
14
28
Passing Yards / Game
11
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
30

EPA

EPA / Play
23
29
EPA / Pass
11
25
EPA / Rush
32
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
9
Interceptions / Game
8
16
Fumbles / Game
24
7
Turnover EPA / Game
16
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
27
4th Down Efficiency
12
3
RZ Efficiency
24
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
8
W
W
O
09/12
1
W
W
U
09/18
-20
L
L
U
09/25
-4
L
L
O
10/02
3
W
W
O
10/09
-7
L
L
O
10/16
10
W
W
U
10/23
14
W
W
O
10/30
14
W
W
U
11/06
10
W
W
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/23
-3
L
L
O
09/11
16
W
W
U
09/18
10
W
W
U
09/25
-2
L
L
U
10/02
-10
L
L
O
10/09
6
W
L
U
10/16
-2
L
L
U
10/23
-18
L
L
U
10/27
-5
L
L
O
11/06
3
W
P
U