SEASeahawks
6-3
16
TBD
Allianz Arena
70°F
021
TBBuccaneers
4-5
TBD
Allianz Arena
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
0
3
13
16
Buccaneers
0
14
0
7
21
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
419
Total Plays
51
74
Yards / Play
5.5
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.11
Passing Yards
244
--
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.35
Rushing Yards
39
161
Rush Attempts
14
44
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
26
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
11%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
1
10
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.58
-8.96
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-7.62
--
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
46
40
Penalty EPA
-7.74
-7.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,572
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+21.1
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.1
Net QB Adjustment
-13.5
Home QB Adjustment
-2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.5
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
15
Yards / Game
13
10
Passing Yards / Game
8
21
Rushing Yards / Game
18
15
EPA
EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
15
19
EPA / Rush
16
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
32
Interceptions / Game
12
27
Fumbles / Game
27
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
6
25
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
25
Yards / Game
14
28
Passing Yards / Game
11
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
30
EPA
EPA / Play
23
29
EPA / Pass
11
25
EPA / Rush
32
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
9
Interceptions / Game
8
16
Fumbles / Game
24
7
Turnover EPA / Game
16
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
27
4th Down Efficiency
12
3
RZ Efficiency
24
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U