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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ cardinals week 16, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
10-4
35
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
6
ARICardinals
11-3
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
14
0
21
35
Cardinals
0
3
3
0
6

Spread

SEA logo
-9

Total

OVER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
596
216
Total Plays
67
64
Yards / Play
8.9
3.4
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.34
Passing Yards
329
187
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
18/45(40%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.38
-0.42
Rushing Yards
267
29
Rush Attempts
34
15
Yards / Rush
7.9
1.9
EPA / Rush
+0.39
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
42%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.04
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-10
-29
Sack EPA
-1.39
-5.12
Penalties
11
1
Penalty Yards
97
--
Penalty EPA
-7.43
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market78.3%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-208
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,664
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-125.6
Home QB Adjustment
-120.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.0
Market Regression
-33.0
Final Difference
-222.9
Model Spread
+9.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Value
Ptile
10/12
-6.0
15
10/19
11.6
98
10/26
-0.6
46
11/02
-4.3
24
11/09
1.1
57
11/16
4.9
82
11/23
0.6
53
11/27
1.5
61
12/07
6.6
87
12/14
-6.2
14
R. Lindley headshot

R. Lindley

Proj. Value
-6.1
Team Elo Adj
-120.7
Value
Ptile
11/25
-7.0
9
12/02
-11.4
2
12/16
-5.3
17
12/23
-5.5
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Seahawks logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
8
25
Passing Yards / Game
13
26
Rushing Yards / Game
1
17

EPA

EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
10
6
EPA / Rush
1
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
22
Interceptions / Game
5
9
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
31
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
8
4th Down Efficiency
29
5
RZ Efficiency
19
3
Cardinals Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Cardinals logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
24
1
Yards / Game
28
1
Passing Yards / Game
28
6
Rushing Yards / Game
31
4

EPA

EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
20
4
EPA / Rush
31
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
12
Interceptions / Game
13
13
Fumbles / Game
5
15
Turnover EPA / Game
19
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
16
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
28
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
-7
L
L
O
10/19
-2
L
L
O
10/26
4
W
L
U
11/02
6
W
L
O
11/09
21
W
W
O
11/16
-4
L
L
O
11/23
16
W
W
U
11/27
16
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
U
12/14
10
W
P
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
10
W
W
O
10/19
11
W
W
U
10/26
4
W
W
U
11/02
11
W
W
P
11/09
17
W
W
O
11/16
8
W
W
U
11/23
-16
L
L
U
11/30
-11
L
L
O
12/07
3
W
W
U
12/11
6
W
W
U