SEASeahawks
3-3
37
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
023
LACChargers
4-2
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
17
7
3
10
37
Chargers
0
14
0
7
21
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
404
329
Total Plays
63
69
Yards / Play
6.4
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.22
Passing Yards
191
276
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
33/51(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.20
Rushing Yards
213
53
Rush Attempts
34
15
Yards / Rush
6.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
56%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.89
-11.87
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-19
-17
Sack EPA
-3.03
-10.52
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
68
70
Penalty EPA
-8.60
-7.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+142
Home nfelo
1,536
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+39.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+8.5
Market Regression
+3.2
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.5
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
23
Yards / Game
13
20
Passing Yards / Game
8
7
Rushing Yards / Game
18
27
EPA
EPA / Play
10
14
EPA / Pass
15
9
EPA / Rush
16
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
16
Interceptions / Game
12
5
Fumbles / Game
27
27
Turnover EPA / Game
6
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
11
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
27
12
Chargers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
5
23
Rushing Yards / Game
30
30
EPA
EPA / Play
18
29
EPA / Pass
12
25
EPA / Rush
17
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
9
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
27
7
Turnover EPA / Game
29
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
3
RZ Efficiency
18
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U