SEASeahawks
3-3
34
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
014
ATLFalcons
4-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
14
7
4
28
Falcons
0
7
7
0
14
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
339
369
Total Plays
56
71
Yards / Play
6.1
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.18
Passing Yards
236
214
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.22
Rushing Yards
103
155
Rush Attempts
26
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
36%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-18.94
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-32
Sack EPA
-1.25
-11.56
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
42
72
Penalty EPA
-4.51
-9.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+69.3
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+24.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.3
Home QB Adjustment
+17.8
Away QB Adjustment
+7.5
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
23
Yards / Game
15
22
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
28
15
EPA
EPA / Play
20
23
EPA / Pass
21
28
EPA / Rush
18
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
6
27
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
14
28
Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
6
13
Passing Yards / Game
7
9
Rushing Yards / Game
10
16
EPA
EPA / Play
15
10
EPA / Pass
15
8
EPA / Rush
11
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
5
Interceptions / Game
29
13
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
10
4th Down Efficiency
5
6
RZ Efficiency
20
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
6-4
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U