SEASeahawks
5-2
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
020
ATLFalcons
1-6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
21
0
3
27
Falcons
0
0
11
9
20
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
512
Total Plays
55
73
Yards / Play
5.9
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.01
Passing Yards
171
443
Comp/Att
14/20(70%)
39/54(72%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.18
Rushing Yards
151
69
Rush Attempts
33
17
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
30
Passing 1st downs
9
24
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
9
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-10.89
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-19
Sack EPA
-2.75
-2.42
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-10.29
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-166
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+79.8
Base HFA
+52.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+27.9
Net QB Adjustment
-121.8
Home QB Adjustment
-100.3
Away QB Adjustment
+21.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-100.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
6
20
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
6
15
EPA
EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
7
24
EPA / Rush
19
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
6
Interceptions / Game
1
18
Fumbles / Game
31
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
26
RZ Efficiency
7
19
Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
19
Yards / Game
5
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
7
Rushing Yards / Game
30
22
EPA
EPA / Play
13
19
EPA / Pass
15
18
EPA / Rush
23
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
9
Interceptions / Game
21
9
Fumbles / Game
18
4
Turnover EPA / Game
10
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
18
4th Down Efficiency
4
20
RZ Efficiency
25
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U