SEASeahawks
3-0
29
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
042
DETLions
2-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
7
13
7
27
Lions
7
14
14
7
42
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
516
389
Total Plays
79
50
Yards / Play
6.5
7.8
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.45
Passing Yards
383
273
Comp/Att
38/57(67%)
19/19(100%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
14.4
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+1.03
Rushing Yards
133
116
Rush Attempts
19
28
Yards / Rush
7.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.36
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
38
21
Passing 1st downs
22
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
6
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.53
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-12
-26
Sack EPA
-3.65
-5.14
Penalties
9
12
Penalty Yards
70
101
Penalty EPA
-7.26
-4.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,619
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+21.6
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-25.0
Net QB Adjustment
-11.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.6
Away QB Adjustment
+4.2
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
11
Yards / Game
15
26
Passing Yards / Game
4
16
Rushing Yards / Game
28
6
EPA
EPA / Play
20
7
EPA / Pass
21
6
EPA / Rush
18
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
24
Interceptions / Game
26
7
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
1
4th Down Efficiency
21
4
RZ Efficiency
14
12
Lions Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
2
13
Passing Yards / Game
10
9
Rushing Yards / Game
3
16
EPA
EPA / Play
3
10
EPA / Pass
2
8
EPA / Rush
6
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
5
Interceptions / Game
24
13
Fumbles / Game
2
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
4
6
RZ Efficiency
3
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U