SEASeahawks
3-3
28
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
014
DETLions
3-3
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
21
0
7
28
Lions
7
0
0
7
14
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
413
331
Total Plays
61
56
Yards / Play
6.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.22
-0.09
Passing Yards
237
297
Comp/Att
14/17(82%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
13.9
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.93
+0.05
Rushing Yards
176
34
Rush Attempts
42
13
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
50%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-15.66
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-13
Sack EPA
-3.64
-9.39
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
111
32
Penalty EPA
-12.76
-3.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+69
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+44.0
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.1
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.1
Net QB Adjustment
+12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+8.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.3
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
16
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
19
25
Rushing Yards / Game
1
11
EPA
EPA / Play
6
15
EPA / Pass
8
24
EPA / Rush
5
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
12
4th Down Efficiency
3
11
RZ Efficiency
6
11
Lions Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
13
Yards / Game
24
19
Passing Yards / Game
20
24
Rushing Yards / Game
23
18
EPA
EPA / Play
23
19
EPA / Pass
22
11
EPA / Rush
25
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
8
Interceptions / Game
14
19
Fumbles / Game
18
3
Turnover EPA / Game
17
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
5
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
25
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U