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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ lions week 8, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
3-3
28
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
14
DETLions
3-3
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
21
0
7
28
Lions
7
0
0
7
14

Spread

SEA logo
+3

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
413
331
Total Plays
61
56
Yards / Play
6.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.22
-0.09
Passing Yards
237
297
Comp/Att
14/17(82%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
13.9
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.93
+0.05
Rushing Yards
176
34
Rush Attempts
42
13
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
50%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-15.66
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-13
Sack EPA
-3.64
-9.39
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
111
32
Penalty EPA
-12.76
-3.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+44.5
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.5
Net QB Adjustment
+12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+8.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.3
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
Value
Ptile
12/10
2.4
69
12/17
-7.3
11
12/24
-3.0
32
12/31
2.5
70
09/09
-3.9
23
09/17
-4.3
21
09/23
-0.5
43
09/30
-0.9
40
10/07
1.6
58
10/14
2.7
68
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
Value
Ptile
12/10
6.2
88
12/16
1.6
64
12/24
-4.0
25
12/31
5.1
85
09/10
-4.8
19
09/16
6.8
89
09/23
3.8
73
09/30
4.7
78
10/07
-2.7
29
10/21
3.7
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Lions Defense
Seahawks logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
7
16
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
19
25
Rushing Yards / Game
1
11

EPA

EPA / Play
6
15
EPA / Pass
8
24
EPA / Rush
5
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
12
4th Down Efficiency
3
11
RZ Efficiency
6
11
Lions Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Lions logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
25
13
Yards / Game
24
19
Passing Yards / Game
20
24
Rushing Yards / Game
23
18

EPA

EPA / Play
23
19
EPA / Pass
22
11
EPA / Rush
25
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
8
Interceptions / Game
14
19
Fumbles / Game
18
3
Turnover EPA / Game
17
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
5
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
25
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
-6
L
L
O
12/17
-35
L
L
O
12/24
9
W
W
U
12/31
-2
L
L
O
09/09
-3
L
P
O
09/17
-7
L
L
U
09/23
11
W
W
U
09/30
3
W
L
U
10/07
-2
L
W
O
10/14
24
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
3
W
W
U
12/16
10
W
W
U
12/24
-9
L
L
U
12/31
24
W
W
O
09/10
-31
L
L
O
09/16
-3
L
W
O
09/23
16
W
W
U
09/30
-2
L
W
O
10/07
8
W
W
O
10/21
11
W
W
O