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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ packers week 2, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
0-1
17
TBD
Lambeau Field
62°F
9 mph
27
GBPackers
1-0
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
62°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
0
14
0
17
Packers
10
3
3
11
27

Spread

GB logo
-3

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
324
363
Total Plays
57
65
Yards / Play
5.7
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.11
Passing Yards
205
236
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.19
Rushing Yards
119
127
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.07
-4.85
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-1
-15
Sack EPA
-1.93
-2.54
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
92
35
Penalty EPA
-6.93
-4.69

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,620
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+16.9
Home QB Adjustment
+17.9
Away QB Adjustment
+1.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
Value
Ptile
11/23
0.6
53
11/27
1.5
61
12/07
6.6
87
12/14
-6.2
14
12/21
14.3
99
12/28
-4.2
25
01/10
5.9
86
01/18
-9.9
3
02/01
1.3
60
09/13
-1.1
43
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
Value
Ptile
11/16
9.0
94
11/23
3.9
76
11/30
5.4
83
12/08
8.3
92
12/14
-6.1
15
12/21
5.8
85
12/28
8.2
92
01/11
6.0
87
01/18
-2.7
31
09/13
6.6
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Packers Defense
Seahawks logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
11
Yards / Game
8
17
Passing Yards / Game
18
8
Rushing Yards / Game
3
19

EPA

EPA / Play
3
13
EPA / Pass
1
7
EPA / Rush
12
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
10
Interceptions / Game
7
8
Fumbles / Game
5
28
Turnover EPA / Game
27
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
14
RZ Efficiency
15
13
Packers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Packers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
14
3
Yards / Game
22
1
Passing Yards / Game
16
6
Rushing Yards / Game
9
3

EPA

EPA / Play
10
8
EPA / Pass
18
6
EPA / Rush
8
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
5
Interceptions / Game
2
19
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
26
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
7
4th Down Efficiency
10
2
RZ Efficiency
16
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
16
W
W
U
11/27
16
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
U
12/14
10
W
P
U
12/21
29
W
W
O
12/28
14
W
W
U
01/10
14
W
W
O
01/18
6
W
L
O
02/01
-4
L
L
O
09/13
-3
L
L
O
GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
33
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
L
U
11/30
5
W
W
U
12/08
6
W
L
O
12/14
-8
L
L
U
12/21
17
W
W
U
12/28
10
W
W
O
01/11
5
W
L
U
01/18
-6
L
W
O
09/13
8
W
W
O