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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ packers week 19, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
12-5
23
TBD
Lambeau Field
23°F
8 mph
28
GBPackers
13-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
23°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
0
14
6
23
Packers
7
14
7
0
28

Spread

GB logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
375
344
Total Plays
61
59
Yards / Play
6.1
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.22
Passing Yards
265
235
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.48
Rushing Yards
110
109
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
33%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-12
-8
Sack EPA
-4.55
-2.62
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
47
30
Penalty EPA
-6.56
-4.08

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,569
Home Field
+58.5
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+13.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
-16.4
Net QB Adjustment
-9.3
Home QB Adjustment
-11.6
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Value
Ptile
10/27
-2.6
34
11/03
9.6
96
11/11
0.9
59
11/24
-8.4
8
12/02
1.0
60
12/08
-5.0
20
12/15
3.8
78
12/22
-9.9
4
12/29
3.4
74
01/05
4.7
83
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
Value
Ptile
10/20
15.6
99
10/27
3.9
78
11/03
-2.7
34
11/10
-1.8
40
11/24
-4.3
24
12/01
7.0
90
12/08
-3.3
29
12/15
-0.5
49
12/23
-4.5
23
12/29
-3.2
30

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Packers Defense
Seahawks logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
12
Yards / Game
6
18
Passing Yards / Game
10
8
Rushing Yards / Game
6
26

EPA

EPA / Play
9
18
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
19
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
31
20
Turnover EPA / Game
20
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
13
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
7
11
Packers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Packers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
14
19
Yards / Game
17
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
7
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22

EPA

EPA / Play
7
19
EPA / Pass
10
18
EPA / Rush
9
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
9
Interceptions / Game
1
9
Fumbles / Game
10
4
Turnover EPA / Game
31
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
18
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
2
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
7
W
L
U
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/11
3
W
W
O
11/24
8
W
W
U
12/02
7
W
W
O
12/08
-16
L
L
U
12/15
6
W
P
O
12/22
-14
L
L
U
12/29
-5
L
L
P
01/05
8
W
W
U
GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
18
W
W
O
10/27
7
W
W
O
11/03
-15
L
L
U
11/10
8
W
W
U
11/24
-29
L
L
U
12/01
18
W
W
O
12/08
5
W
L
U
12/15
8
W
W
U
12/23
13
W
W
U
12/29
3
W
L
U