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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ saints week 5, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
2-2
32
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
39
NOSaints
1-3
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
10
9
0
13
32
Saints
3
14
14
8
39

Spread

NO logo
-5.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
396
440
Total Plays
50
75
Yards / Play
7.9
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.05
Passing Yards
245
203
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.02
Rushing Yards
151
237
Rush Attempts
21
49
Yards / Rush
7.2
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
15
26
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
14
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
11%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.08
-7.24
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-23
-6
Sack EPA
-6.78
-1.27
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
85
57
Penalty EPA
-9.98
-6.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model64.6%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+63
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,430
Home Field
+52.5
Base HFA
+38.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.8
Net QB Adjustment
-54.6
Home QB Adjustment
-42.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-6.4
Final Difference
104.9
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Value
Ptile
12/28
10.2
96
10/23
-4.5
17
12/03
-2.3
36
10/17
-2.7
33
10/25
-5.2
18
10/31
1.2
61
09/12
3.1
76
09/18
-2.0
37
09/25
2.3
70
10/02
11.2
98
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-42.6
Value
Ptile
12/20
-0.3
43
12/27
5.1
78
01/03
-5.9
11
09/12
-2.4
35
09/19
-3.0
32
11/25
-1.1
44
12/05
-7.0
11
01/02
-6.1
14
01/09
-5.6
16
10/02
0.6
56

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Saints Defense
Seahawks logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
10
9
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
8
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24

EPA

EPA / Play
10
9
EPA / Pass
15
6
EPA / Rush
16
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
18
Interceptions / Game
12
30
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
6
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
6
7
RZ Efficiency
27
5
Saints Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Saints logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
22
25
Yards / Game
18
28
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
19
30

EPA

EPA / Play
24
29
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
29
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
9
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
27
4th Down Efficiency
30
3
RZ Efficiency
21
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
7
W
W
O
12/12
20
W
W
O
12/21
-10
L
L
U
12/26
-1
L
L
O
01/02
22
W
W
O
01/09
8
W
W
O
09/12
1
W
W
U
09/18
-20
L
L
U
09/25
-4
L
L
O
10/02
3
W
W
O
NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
-10
L
L
U
12/12
21
W
W
U
12/19
9
W
W
U
12/27
-17
L
L
U
01/02
8
W
W
U
01/09
10
W
W
O
09/11
1
W
L
O
09/18
-10
L
L
U
09/25
-8
L
L
U
10/02
-3
L
W
O