SEASeahawks
2-2
32
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
039
NOSaints
1-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
10
9
0
13
32
Saints
3
14
14
8
39
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
440
Total Plays
50
75
Yards / Play
7.9
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.05
Passing Yards
245
203
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.02
Rushing Yards
151
237
Rush Attempts
21
49
Yards / Rush
7.2
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
26
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
14
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
11%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.08
-7.24
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-23
-6
Sack EPA
-6.78
-1.27
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
85
57
Penalty EPA
-9.98
-6.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model64.8%
Spread Pick
Seahawks+5.5
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+52.6
Base HFA
+38.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.9
Net QB Adjustment
-54.6
Home QB Adjustment
-42.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-6.1
Final Difference
105.7
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-42.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
9
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
8
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24
EPA
EPA / Play
10
9
EPA / Pass
15
6
EPA / Rush
16
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
18
Interceptions / Game
12
30
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
6
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
6
7
RZ Efficiency
27
5
Saints Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
25
Yards / Game
18
28
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
19
30
EPA
EPA / Play
24
29
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
29
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
9
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
27
4th Down Efficiency
30
3
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U