SEASeahawks
4-1
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
025
NOSaints
2-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
1
7
3
3
14
Saints
0
13
3
9
25
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
375
Total Plays
54
73
Yards / Play
6.6
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.01
Passing Yards
285
252
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.25
Rushing Yards
74
123
Rush Attempts
17
35
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
28
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
45%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.35
-9.18
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-11
-13
Sack EPA
-1.73
-3.13
Penalties
11
2
Penalty Yards
76
--
Penalty EPA
+0.41
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-49
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+77.6
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.4
Net QB Adjustment
+24.1
Home QB Adjustment
+23.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.7
Market Regression
+75.7
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+23.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
31
Yards / Game
15
26
Passing Yards / Game
4
28
Rushing Yards / Game
21
14
EPA
EPA / Play
14
28
EPA / Pass
10
27
EPA / Rush
21
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
15
28
Fumbles / Game
6
2
Turnover EPA / Game
21
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
27
4th Down Efficiency
21
10
RZ Efficiency
26
18
Saints Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
2
Yards / Game
1
5
Passing Yards / Game
1
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
6
EPA
EPA / Play
7
8
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
7
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
6
Interceptions / Game
18
25
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
6
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
2
5
RZ Efficiency
2
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
6-3-1
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U