SEASeahawks
4-8
33
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
013
HOUTexans
2-10
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
10
6
3
14
33
Texans
7
6
0
0
13
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
455
380
Total Plays
58
76
Yards / Play
7.8
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.28
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
317
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
33/49(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.55
-0.04
Rushing Yards
193
63
Rush Attempts
29
25
Yards / Rush
6.7
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
54%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-2.76
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
69
52
Penalty EPA
-8.10
-4.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-205
Home nfelo
1,344
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+51.4
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.6
Net QB Adjustment
-59.3
Home QB Adjustment
-65.6
Away QB Adjustment
-6.4
Market Regression
-41.3
Final Difference
-231.2
Model Spread
+9.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-65.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
27
Yards / Game
20
31
Passing Yards / Game
24
26
Rushing Yards / Game
10
31
EPA
EPA / Play
13
26
EPA / Pass
17
26
EPA / Rush
6
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
9
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
5
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
26
4th Down Efficiency
32
20
RZ Efficiency
3
20
Texans Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
32
28
Passing Yards / Game
22
32
Rushing Yards / Game
32
17
EPA
EPA / Play
30
17
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
30
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
22
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
15
4th Down Efficiency
27
3
RZ Efficiency
27
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Texans
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U