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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ texans week 14, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
4-8
33
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
13
HOUTexans
2-10
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
10
6
3
14
33
Texans
7
6
0
0
13

Spread

SEA logo
-9.5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
455
380
Total Plays
58
76
Yards / Play
7.8
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.28
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
317
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
33/49(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.55
-0.04
Rushing Yards
193
63
Rush Attempts
29
25
Yards / Rush
6.7
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
54%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-2.76
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
69
52
Penalty EPA
-8.10
-4.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market79.1%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-205
Home nfelo
1,344
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+51.4
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.6
Net QB Adjustment
-59.3
Home QB Adjustment
-65.6
Away QB Adjustment
-6.4
Market Regression
-41.3
Final Difference
-231.2
Model Spread
+9.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Value
Ptile
01/09
-3.6
22
09/12
3.4
78
09/19
3.3
76
09/26
2.1
68
10/03
1.2
61
10/07
-2.6
34
11/14
-9.0
6
11/21
-6.3
13
11/29
0.8
59
12/05
0.4
56
D. Mills headshot

D. Mills

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-65.6
Value
Ptile
09/23
-3.9
25
10/03
-15.2
0
10/10
5.4
85
10/17
-6.2
14
10/24
-3.6
27
10/31
1.5
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Texans Defense
Seahawks logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
16
27
Yards / Game
20
31
Passing Yards / Game
24
26
Rushing Yards / Game
10
31

EPA

EPA / Play
13
26
EPA / Pass
17
26
EPA / Rush
6
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
9
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
5
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
26
4th Down Efficiency
32
20
RZ Efficiency
3
20
Texans Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Texans logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
32
28
Passing Yards / Game
22
32
Rushing Yards / Game
32
17

EPA

EPA / Play
30
17
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
30
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
22
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
15
4th Down Efficiency
27
3
RZ Efficiency
27
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
-13
L
L
U
10/03
7
W
W
U
10/07
-9
L
L
U
10/17
-3
L
W
P
10/25
-3
L
W
U
10/31
24
W
W
U
11/14
-17
L
L
U
11/21
-10
L
L
U
11/29
-2
L
L
U
12/05
7
W
W
O
HOU logo

Texans

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-15
L
L
U
10/03
-40
L
L
U
10/10
-3
L
W
O
10/17
-28
L
L
U
10/24
-26
L
L
U
10/31
-16
L
W
O
11/07
-8
L
L
U
11/21
9
W
W
U
11/28
-7
L
L
U
12/05
-31
L
L
U