PITSteelers
10-3
3
TBD
Candlestick Park
51°F
10 mph
20
SF49ers
10-3
TBD
Candlestick Park
51°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
3
0
3
49ers
3
3
7
7
20
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
287
Total Plays
66
61
Yards / Play
5.9
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.04
Passing Yards
305
--
Comp/Att
25/44(57%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.15
Rushing Yards
84
100
Rush Attempts
19
30
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
57%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.46
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-25
--
Sack EPA
-7.81
--
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
72
49
Penalty EPA
-9.68
-5.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,591
Away nfelo
1,629
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-12.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.5
Away QB Adjustment
+9.1
Market Regression
+50.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
2
Yards / Game
11
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
29
Rushing Yards / Game
13
1
EPA
EPA / Play
7
1
EPA / Pass
8
5
EPA / Rush
7
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
7
Interceptions / Game
18
2
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
12
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
25
11
RZ Efficiency
15
4
49ers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
1
Yards / Game
24
1
Passing Yards / Game
29
3
Rushing Yards / Game
8
8
EPA
EPA / Play
12
9
EPA / Pass
14
7
EPA / Rush
17
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
8
Interceptions / Game
1
25
Fumbles / Game
8
30
Turnover EPA / Game
32
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
28
RZ Efficiency
30
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U