PITSteelers
2-0
17
TBD
Soldier Field
89°F
5 mph
23
CHIBears
0-2
TBD
Soldier Field
89°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Steelers
0
7
7
3
0
17
Bears
7
10
0
0
6
23
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
282
306
Total Plays
59
62
Yards / Play
4.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.10
Passing Yards
212
84
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.33
Rushing Yards
70
222
Rush Attempts
17
38
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
11
4
Rushing 1st downs
6
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.96
-3.95
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-17
Sack EPA
-7.26
-2.80
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
40
73
Penalty EPA
-11.50
-6.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-161
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,607
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-15.6
Home QB Adjustment
-13.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.5
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-13.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
8
Yards / Game
3
7
Passing Yards / Game
5
21
Rushing Yards / Game
22
10
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
6
13
EPA / Rush
19
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
16
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
3
1
Turnover EPA / Game
18
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
22
RZ Efficiency
18
10
Bears Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
24
13
Rushing Yards / Game
16
13
EPA
EPA / Play
27
17
EPA / Pass
28
12
EPA / Rush
17
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
28
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
23
9
RZ Efficiency
5
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bears
1-9
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U