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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ bears week 3, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
2-0
17
TBD
Soldier Field
89°F
5 mph
23
CHIBears
0-2
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
89°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Steelers
0
7
7
3
0
17
Bears
7
10
0
0
6
23

Spread

CHI logo
+7

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
282
306
Total Plays
59
62
Yards / Play
4.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.10
Passing Yards
212
84
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.33
Rushing Yards
70
222
Rush Attempts
17
38
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
11
4
Rushing 1st downs
6
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.96
-3.95
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-17
Sack EPA
-7.26
-2.80
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
40
73
Penalty EPA
-11.50
-6.93

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-159
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+47.8
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-15.6
Home QB Adjustment
-13.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.5
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Value
Ptile
11/24
4.4
81
12/04
2.2
65
12/11
-7.4
6
12/18
0.8
55
12/25
3.7
76
01/08
-2.3
31
01/15
-2.4
30
01/22
3.9
77
09/10
0.5
55
09/17
1.7
65
M. Glennon headshot

M. Glennon

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-13.1
Value
Ptile
12/15
-4.3
23
12/22
-9.2
5
12/29
-1.8
40
09/28
0.2
50
10/05
0.1
50
10/12
-2.9
30
10/26
-5.7
16
11/02
-2.1
35
09/10
-2.6
35
09/17
0.7
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Bears Defense
Steelers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
5
8
Yards / Game
3
7
Passing Yards / Game
5
21
Rushing Yards / Game
22
10

EPA

EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
6
13
EPA / Rush
19
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
16
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
3
1
Turnover EPA / Game
18
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
22
RZ Efficiency
18
10
Bears Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bears logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
24
13
Rushing Yards / Game
16
13

EPA

EPA / Play
27
17
EPA / Pass
28
12
EPA / Rush
17
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
28
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
23
9
RZ Efficiency
5
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
10
W
W
U
12/11
7
W
W
O
12/18
4
W
W
U
12/25
4
W
L
O
01/01
3
W
L
O
01/08
18
W
W
U
01/15
2
W
W
U
01/22
-19
L
L
O
09/10
3
W
L
U
09/17
17
W
W
U
CHI logo

Bears

1-9
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-26
L
L
O
11/20
-6
L
W
U
11/27
-6
L
W
O
12/04
20
W
W
U
12/11
-3
L
W
U
12/18
-3
L
W
O
12/24
-20
L
L
O
01/01
-28
L
L
O
09/10
-6
L
W
U
09/17
-22
L
L
U