PITSteelers
-
23
TBD
Paycor Stadium
70°F
020
CINBengals
-
TBD
Paycor Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Steelers
4
7
0
3
3
17
Bengals
3
3
8
6
0
20
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
434
Total Plays
61
95
Yards / Play
4.4
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.20
Passing Yards
192
301
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
33/54(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.30
Rushing Yards
75
133
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
32
Passing 1st downs
8
22
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-22.21
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-2
-39
Sack EPA
-1.15
-15.48
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
59
27
Penalty EPA
-3.85
-6.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
Steelers+7.0
Expected Value
+8.1%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+33.0
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
-16.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
130.7
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
23
17
Passing Yards / Game
20
29
Rushing Yards / Game
16
5
EPA
EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
16
10
EPA / Rush
11
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
7
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
1
3
Turnover EPA / Game
26
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
12
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
10
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
1
8
Rushing Yards / Game
28
9
EPA
EPA / Play
5
24
EPA / Pass
4
29
EPA / Rush
18
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
13
1
Fumbles / Game
4
31
Turnover EPA / Game
23
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
32
26
RZ Efficiency
7
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U