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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ bengals week 1, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
-
23
TBD
Paycor Stadium
70°F
0
20
CINBengals
-
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Steelers
4
7
0
3
3
17
Bengals
3
3
8
6
0
20

Spread

PIT logo
+7

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
267
434
Total Plays
61
95
Yards / Play
4.4
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.20
Passing Yards
192
301
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
33/54(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.30
Rushing Yards
75
133
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
13
32
Passing 1st downs
8
22
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-22.21
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-2
-39
Sack EPA
-1.15
-15.48
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
59
27
Penalty EPA
-3.85
-6.68

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model68.1%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.1%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+96
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+33.0
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
-16.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
131.5
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Value
Ptile
09/13
3.0
67
09/20
-6.1
10
09/27
-0.9
38
11/29
-2.7
25
12/06
0.7
49
12/13
3.3
68
12/20
-0.1
45
12/27
2.2
60
01/03
2.9
66
01/10
1.4
54
J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Value
Ptile
11/28
1.7
66
12/05
1.6
64
12/12
1.9
67
12/19
-1.5
42
12/26
15.2
99
01/02
9.6
96
01/15
0.9
60
01/22
-6.1
14
01/30
-0.3
51
02/13
-3.0
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Steelers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
23
17
Passing Yards / Game
20
29
Rushing Yards / Game
16
5

EPA

EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
16
10
EPA / Rush
11
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
7
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
1
3
Turnover EPA / Game
26
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
12
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bengals logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
10
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
1
8
Rushing Yards / Game
28
9

EPA

EPA / Play
5
24
EPA / Pass
4
29
EPA / Rush
18
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
13
1
Fumbles / Game
4
31
Turnover EPA / Game
23
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
32
26
RZ Efficiency
7
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
0
T
L
U
11/21
-4
L
W
O
11/28
-31
L
L
O
12/05
1
W
W
U
12/09
-8
L
L
O
12/19
6
W
W
U
12/26
-26
L
L
O
01/03
12
W
W
U
01/09
3
W
W
U
01/16
-21
L
L
O
CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
-19
L
L
O
12/12
-3
L
L
P
12/19
5
W
W
U
12/26
20
W
W
O
01/02
3
W
W
O
01/09
-5
L
W
U
01/15
7
W
W
U
01/22
3
W
W
U
01/30
3
W
W
U
02/13
-3
L
W
U