PITSteelers
8-3
44
TBD
Paycor Stadium
32°F
9 mph
38
CINBengals
4-7
TBD
Paycor Stadium
32°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
20
7
4
38
Bengals
8
7
3
14
32
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
520
375
Total Plays
66
57
Yards / Play
7.9
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.13
Passing Yards
410
282
Comp/Att
29/38(76%)
28/38(74%)
Yards / Pass
10.8
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.41
-0.03
Rushing Yards
110
93
Rush Attempts
26
15
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
25
Passing 1st downs
18
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
4
3rd Down %
44%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
8
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-8.27
-17.89
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-4
-27
Sack EPA
-2.19
-16.27
Penalties
9
11
Penalty Yards
103
101
Penalty EPA
-3.42
-10.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,568
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+47.8
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
-18.2
Home Bye Adj
+11.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.1
Home QB Adjustment
+26.9
Away QB Adjustment
+14.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.8
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+26.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
13
Rushing Yards / Game
12
19
EPA
EPA / Play
16
28
EPA / Pass
19
17
EPA / Rush
28
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
10
Interceptions / Game
3
9
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
31
19
RZ Efficiency
29
30
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
7
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
1
23
Rushing Yards / Game
30
11
EPA
EPA / Play
6
8
EPA / Pass
5
16
EPA / Rush
14
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
8
Interceptions / Game
9
3
Fumbles / Game
27
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
21
28
RZ Efficiency
5
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U