PITSteelers
3-3
15
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
57°F
13 mph
10
CLEBrowns
4-3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
57°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
6
6
15
Browns
3
0
7
0
10
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
370
306
Total Plays
71
58
Yards / Play
5.2
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.10
Passing Yards
255
210
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.06
Rushing Yards
115
96
Rush Attempts
32
23
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
31%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.74
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-15
Sack EPA
-2.72
-4.16
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
65
30
Penalty EPA
-5.88
-3.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model64.1%
Spread Pick
Steelers+5.5
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
-9.3
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-31.7
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.6
Home QB Adjustment
-6.5
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
+35.6
Final Difference
101.0
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
14
Yards / Game
23
3
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
30
11
EPA
EPA / Play
24
21
EPA / Pass
26
11
EPA / Rush
19
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
6
17
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
23
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
14
4th Down Efficiency
20
27
RZ Efficiency
21
28
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
22
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
28
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32
EPA
EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
22
18
EPA / Rush
4
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
17
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
20
6
Turnover EPA / Game
21
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
12
4th Down Efficiency
30
17
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Browns
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U