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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ browns week 8, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
3-3
15
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
57°F
13 mph
10
CLEBrowns
4-3
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
57°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
6
6
15
Browns
3
0
7
0
10

Spread

PIT logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
370
306
Total Plays
71
58
Yards / Play
5.2
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.10
Passing Yards
255
210
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.06
Rushing Yards
115
96
Rush Attempts
32
23
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
31%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.74
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-15
Sack EPA
-2.72
-4.16
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
65
30
Penalty EPA
-5.88
-3.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model63.1%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,568
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
-9.3
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-31.7
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.6
Home QB Adjustment
-6.5
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
+28.0
Final Difference
93.4
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Value
Ptile
12/13
-4.2
18
12/21
-6.4
10
12/27
7.1
89
01/10
7.3
90
09/12
-3.1
30
09/19
-1.0
45
09/26
-3.7
26
10/03
-2.0
38
10/10
2.1
69
10/17
1.3
62
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
Value
Ptile
12/27
-7.3
7
01/03
1.8
57
01/10
7.3
90
01/17
-2.3
28
09/12
-0.1
53
09/19
-0.1
53
09/26
-2.0
38
10/03
-8.1
8
10/10
6.1
88
10/17
-3.8
25

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Steelers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
21
14
Yards / Game
23
3
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
30
11

EPA

EPA / Play
24
21
EPA / Pass
26
11
EPA / Rush
19
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
6
17
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
23
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
14
4th Down Efficiency
20
27
RZ Efficiency
21
28
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Browns logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
22
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
28
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32

EPA

EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
22
18
EPA / Rush
4
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
17
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
20
6
Turnover EPA / Game
21
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
12
4th Down Efficiency
30
17
RZ Efficiency
12
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
-10
L
L
O
12/27
4
W
W
O
01/03
-2
L
W
O
01/10
-11
L
L
O
09/12
7
W
W
U
09/19
-9
L
L
U
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
-10
L
L
U
10/10
8
W
W
O
10/17
3
W
L
P
CLE logo

Browns

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
2
W
L
O
01/10
11
W
W
O
01/17
-5
L
W
U
09/12
-4
L
W
O
09/19
10
W
L
O
09/26
20
W
W
U
10/03
7
W
W
U
10/10
-5
L
L
O
10/17
-23
L
L
O
10/21
3
W
W
U