PITSteelers
2-0
38
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
90°F
7 mph
13
TBBuccaneers
2-0
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
90°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
21
3
1
32
Buccaneers
3
3
0
7
13
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
33
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
387
303
Total Plays
49
62
Yards / Play
7.9
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.31
-0.22
Passing Yards
--
228
Comp/Att
12/17(71%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.45
-0.37
Rushing Yards
201
75
Rush Attempts
32
21
Yards / Rush
6.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
44%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.43
-15.26
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-5.18
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model58.8%
Spread Pick
Steelers-2.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-121
Home nfelo
1,408
Away nfelo
1,603
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.2
Home QB Adjustment
+6.7
Away QB Adjustment
-5.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-61.5
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Batch
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
7
Yards / Game
14
15
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
11
28
EPA
EPA / Play
13
22
EPA / Pass
9
14
EPA / Rush
10
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
23
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
30
4th Down Efficiency
27
21
RZ Efficiency
15
19
Buccaneers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
2
Yards / Game
18
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
17
Rushing Yards / Game
8
1
EPA
EPA / Play
12
2
EPA / Pass
8
4
EPA / Rush
9
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
8
Interceptions / Game
2
10
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
24
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
5
4th Down Efficiency
1
25
RZ Efficiency
17
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
1-9
O/U