PITSteelers
0-1
30
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
5 mph
27
TBBuccaneers
2-0
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
6
18
0
0
24
Buccaneers
7
3
3
14
27
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
413
455
Total Plays
63
69
Yards / Play
6.6
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.07
Passing Yards
335
392
Comp/Att
30/38(79%)
30/50(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.00
Rushing Yards
78
63
Rush Attempts
22
16
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
28
Passing 1st downs
16
22
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.28
-20.54
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-18
-19
Sack EPA
-4.78
-4.69
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
150
80
Penalty EPA
-11.11
-10.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,558
Home Field
+56.6
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+26.1
Away QB Adjustment
+18.1
Market Regression
+61.4
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+26.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
31
Yards / Game
5
27
Passing Yards / Game
2
32
Rushing Yards / Game
31
24
EPA
EPA / Play
8
31
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
15
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
14
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
18
26
Turnover EPA / Game
7
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
22
4th Down Efficiency
6
7
RZ Efficiency
2
32
Buccaneers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
16
Yards / Game
2
6
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
28
5
EPA
EPA / Play
12
20
EPA / Pass
9
18
EPA / Rush
26
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
29
Interceptions / Game
32
27
Fumbles / Game
25
19
Turnover EPA / Game
2
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
12
RZ Efficiency
15
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-3-1
SU
2-8
ATS
8-2
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U