PITSteelers
7-3
13
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
32°F
5 mph
9
KCChiefs
4-6
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
32°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
13
0
0
13
Chiefs
3
3
0
3
9
Spread
+10.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
252
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
4.8
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.22
Passing Yards
182
162
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.19
Rushing Yards
108
90
Rush Attempts
28
34
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
15
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
27%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.41
-17.07
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-11
-5
Sack EPA
-1.87
-1.79
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
--
20
Penalty EPA
--
-3.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market81.3%
Model81.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-234
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-79.1
Home QB Adjustment
-73.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-255.3
Model Spread
+10.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
T. Palko
Proj. Value
-5.3
Team Elo Adj
-73.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
13
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
4
2
Rushing Yards / Game
13
26
EPA
EPA / Play
7
21
EPA / Pass
8
22
EPA / Rush
7
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
20
Interceptions / Game
18
5
Fumbles / Game
26
18
Turnover EPA / Game
12
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
5
4th Down Efficiency
25
18
RZ Efficiency
15
20
Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
1
Yards / Game
27
1
Passing Yards / Game
28
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
8
EPA
EPA / Play
29
9
EPA / Pass
21
7
EPA / Rush
31
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
8
Interceptions / Game
23
25
Fumbles / Game
6
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
32
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U