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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ chiefs week 16, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
7-6
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
60°F
22 mph
36
KCChiefs
10-4
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
60°F
22 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
3
7
10
Chiefs
14
9
7
6
36

Spread

KC logo
-10

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
303
381
Total Plays
70
67
Yards / Play
4.3
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.16
Passing Yards
173
254
Comp/Att
28/43(65%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.53
Rushing Yards
130
127
Rush Attempts
25
35
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-15.47
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-21
-4
Sack EPA
-8.70
-1.56
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
40
41
Penalty EPA
-1.88
-6.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+234
Home nfelo
1,670
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+43.0
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
+11.9
Home QB Adjustment
-3.1
Away QB Adjustment
-15.0
Market Regression
-12.0
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.0
Value
Ptile
10/03
-2.0
38
10/10
2.1
69
10/17
1.3
62
10/31
-0.4
49
11/08
-1.7
40
11/21
2.9
75
11/28
-6.3
13
12/05
3.0
76
12/09
0.9
60
12/19
-4.4
22
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.1
Value
Ptile
10/10
3.0
76
10/17
2.6
72
10/24
-6.4
13
11/01
-2.1
37
11/07
-3.1
31
11/14
13.3
99
11/21
-4.5
22
12/05
-3.1
30
12/12
2.2
69
12/16
9.3
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
21
17
Yards / Game
23
26
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
30
19

EPA

EPA / Play
24
24
EPA / Pass
26
22
EPA / Rush
19
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
24
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
17
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Chiefs logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32

EPA

EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
18
EPA / Rush
5
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
17
Interceptions / Game
13
16
Fumbles / Game
31
6
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
11
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

6-3-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
8
W
W
O
10/17
3
W
L
P
10/31
5
W
W
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/14
0
T
L
U
11/21
-4
L
W
O
11/28
-31
L
L
O
12/05
1
W
W
U
12/09
-8
L
L
O
12/19
6
W
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
-18
L
L
O
10/17
18
W
W
U
10/24
-24
L
L
U
11/01
3
W
L
U
11/07
6
W
L
U
11/14
27
W
W
O
11/21
10
W
W
U
12/05
13
W
W
U
12/12
39
W
W
O
12/16
6
W
W
O