PITSteelers
7-6
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
60°F
22 mph
36
KCChiefs
10-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
60°F
22 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
3
7
10
Chiefs
14
9
7
6
36
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
381
Total Plays
70
67
Yards / Play
4.3
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.16
Passing Yards
173
254
Comp/Att
28/43(65%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.53
Rushing Yards
130
127
Rush Attempts
25
35
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-15.47
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-21
-4
Sack EPA
-8.70
-1.56
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
40
41
Penalty EPA
-1.88
-6.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+237
Home nfelo
1,673
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+43.0
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
+11.9
Home QB Adjustment
-3.1
Away QB Adjustment
-15.0
Market Regression
-12.0
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.0
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-3.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
17
Yards / Game
23
26
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
30
19
EPA
EPA / Play
24
24
EPA / Pass
26
22
EPA / Rush
19
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
24
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
17
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32
EPA
EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
18
EPA / Rush
5
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
17
Interceptions / Game
13
16
Fumbles / Game
31
6
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
11
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-3-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U