PITSteelers
6-2
28
TBD
FedExField
57°F
9 mph
27
WASCommanders
7-2
TBD
FedExField
57°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
7
7
7
28
Commanders
7
10
10
0
27
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
312
242
Total Plays
75
59
Yards / Play
4.2
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.04
Passing Yards
172
182
Comp/Att
14/29(48%)
17/34(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.27
Rushing Yards
140
60
Rush Attempts
43
22
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.18
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
9
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
44%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+0.31
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-23
-20
Sack EPA
-4.67
-5.45
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
49
41
Penalty EPA
-4.34
-4.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model50.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+9.3
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.7
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+37.1
Away QB Adjustment
+30.6
Market Regression
-6.0
Final Difference
1.5
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+30.6
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+37.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
22
Yards / Game
23
17
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31
EPA
EPA / Play
16
29
EPA / Pass
19
20
EPA / Rush
28
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
13
Interceptions / Game
3
24
Fumbles / Game
31
6
Turnover EPA / Game
30
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
16
4th Down Efficiency
31
29
RZ Efficiency
29
27
Commanders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
5
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
23
Rushing Yards / Game
4
11
EPA
EPA / Play
4
8
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
2
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
8
Interceptions / Game
8
3
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
26
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
6
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U