PITSteelers
4-1
15
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
15 mph
30
MIADolphins
1-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
8
0
0
7
15
Dolphins
3
13
7
7
30
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
474
Total Plays
54
68
Yards / Play
5.5
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.13
Passing Yards
171
--
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.28
Rushing Yards
128
222
Rush Attempts
16
36
Yards / Rush
8.0
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.28
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
24
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.30
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-1.57
--
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
65
95
Penalty EPA
-8.38
-5.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-189
Home nfelo
1,424
Away nfelo
1,632
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.0
Home QB Adjustment
-13.5
Away QB Adjustment
+24.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-13.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
19
Yards / Game
6
29
Passing Yards / Game
25
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31
EPA
EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
7
12
EPA / Rush
3
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
21
Interceptions / Game
21
7
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
11
20
RZ Efficiency
16
22
Dolphins Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
10
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
32
10
Rushing Yards / Game
14
8
EPA
EPA / Play
21
18
EPA / Pass
18
15
EPA / Rush
19
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
32
Interceptions / Game
20
19
Fumbles / Game
11
15
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
32
19
RZ Efficiency
14
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U