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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ falcons week 15, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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PIT logo
PITSteelers
8-5
27
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
20
ATLFalcons
5-8
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
6
8
0
7
21
Falcons
0
7
6
7
20

Spread

PIT logo
-3

Total

UNDER
55

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
398
407
Total Plays
58
57
Yards / Play
6.9
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.00
Passing Yards
353
--
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
10.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.50
+0.09
Rushing Yards
45
97
Rush Attempts
22
20
Yards / Rush
2.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
55%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.35
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.45
--
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
34
25
Penalty EPA
-3.51
-3.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model51.0%
Spread Pick
ATL logo
Falcons+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.1%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+46
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.8
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+24.5
Market Regression
-21.9
Final Difference
-6.6
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
Value
Ptile
09/28
3.1
71
10/05
-0.8
44
10/12
-4.2
25
10/20
1.6
62
10/26
22.7
100
11/02
10.0
96
11/09
0.0
49
11/17
-5.2
19
11/30
2.6
69
12/07
8.7
93
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Value
Ptile
09/28
1.1
58
10/05
2.8
70
10/12
-5.2
18
10/19
-1.8
36
10/26
2.1
66
11/09
0.1
50
11/16
1.9
64
11/23
0.9
56
11/30
6.8
88
12/08
8.8
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Steelers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
7
27
Yards / Game
2
32
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
17
21

EPA

EPA / Play
4
28
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
19
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
20
Interceptions / Game
7
13
Fumbles / Game
21
16
Turnover EPA / Game
21
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
20
21
Falcons Offense vs Steelers Defense
Falcons logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
7
17
Passing Yards / Game
2
22
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6

EPA

EPA / Play
11
27
EPA / Pass
11
25
EPA / Rush
22
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
17
Interceptions / Game
17
26
Fumbles / Game
15
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
9
4th Down Efficiency
14
32
RZ Efficiency
6
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
-3
L
L
O
10/05
8
W
W
U
10/12
-21
L
L
U
10/20
7
W
W
O
10/26
17
W
W
O
11/02
20
W
W
O
11/09
-7
L
L
U
11/17
3
W
L
O
11/30
-3
L
L
O
12/07
21
W
W
O
ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
-13
L
L
O
10/05
-10
L
L
U
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
-22
L
L
U
10/26
-1
L
W
U
11/09
10
W
W
U
11/16
2
W
L
U
11/23
-2
L
L
O
11/30
11
W
W
O
12/08
-6
L
W
O