PITSteelers
8-5
27
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
020
ATLFalcons
5-8
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
6
8
0
7
21
Falcons
0
7
6
7
20
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
407
Total Plays
58
57
Yards / Play
6.9
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.00
Passing Yards
353
--
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
10.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.50
+0.09
Rushing Yards
45
97
Rush Attempts
22
20
Yards / Rush
2.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
55%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.35
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.45
--
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
34
25
Penalty EPA
-3.51
-3.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model51.2%
Spread Pick
Falcons+3.0
Expected Value
+9.1%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+43
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.8
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+24.5
Market Regression
-23.5
Final Difference
-8.2
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
27
Yards / Game
2
32
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
17
21
EPA
EPA / Play
4
28
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
19
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
20
Interceptions / Game
7
13
Fumbles / Game
21
16
Turnover EPA / Game
21
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
20
21
Falcons Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
7
17
Passing Yards / Game
2
22
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6
EPA
EPA / Play
11
27
EPA / Pass
11
25
EPA / Rush
22
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
17
Interceptions / Game
17
26
Fumbles / Game
15
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
9
4th Down Efficiency
14
32
RZ Efficiency
6
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U