PITSteelers
-
26
TBD
MetLife Stadium
71°F
5 mph
16
NYGGiants
-
TBD
MetLife Stadium
71°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
13
0
10
26
Giants
3
7
0
6
16
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
291
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
5.5
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.04
Passing Yards
208
262
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.47
-0.03
Rushing Yards
141
29
Rush Attempts
30
20
Yards / Rush
4.7
1.4
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
53%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.54
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-21
-17
Sack EPA
-3.11
-3.96
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
21
--
Penalty EPA
-3.74
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-150
Home nfelo
1,420
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-25.8
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+26.5
Market Regression
-31.7
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+26.5
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
9
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
31
26
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11
EPA
EPA / Play
19
15
EPA / Pass
15
17
EPA / Rush
32
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
25
20
Fumbles / Game
9
13
Turnover EPA / Game
17
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
24
4th Down Efficiency
11
22
RZ Efficiency
8
3
Giants Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
5
Yards / Game
31
3
Passing Yards / Game
26
8
Rushing Yards / Game
19
13
EPA
EPA / Play
28
2
EPA / Pass
27
2
EPA / Rush
19
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
32
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
30
11
Turnover EPA / Game
12
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
6
4th Down Efficiency
8
1
RZ Efficiency
31
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Giants
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U