PITSteelers
4-3
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
44°F
5 mph
20
NYGGiants
6-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
44°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
10
0
14
24
Giants
0
8
6
0
14
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
182
Total Plays
69
48
Yards / Play
5.1
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.12
Passing Yards
191
114
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
10/24(42%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.30
-0.30
Rushing Yards
158
68
Rush Attempts
35
22
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
13
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
46%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.26
-3.73
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-25
-11
Sack EPA
-15.64
-2.64
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
119
40
Penalty EPA
-8.68
-3.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,590
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+23.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+23.0
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
21
31
Passing Yards / Game
10
13
Rushing Yards / Game
26
24
EPA
EPA / Play
18
20
EPA / Pass
14
22
EPA / Rush
29
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
32
Interceptions / Game
12
3
Fumbles / Game
28
12
Turnover EPA / Game
13
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
20
17
RZ Efficiency
12
4
Giants Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
5
Yards / Game
16
1
Passing Yards / Game
32
5
Rushing Yards / Game
14
2
EPA
EPA / Play
3
7
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
7
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
13
Interceptions / Game
14
27
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
24
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
4
4th Down Efficiency
17
29
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Giants
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U