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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ giants week 9, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
4-3
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
44°F
5 mph
20
NYGGiants
6-2
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
44°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
10
0
14
24
Giants
0
8
6
0
14

Spread

PIT logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
349
182
Total Plays
69
48
Yards / Play
5.1
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.12
Passing Yards
191
114
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
10/24(42%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.30
-0.30
Rushing Yards
158
68
Rush Attempts
35
22
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
22
13
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
46%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.26
-3.73
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-25
-11
Sack EPA
-15.64
-2.64
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
119
40
Penalty EPA
-8.68
-3.68

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+23.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+23.0
Value
Ptile
12/19
-5.1
18
01/01
-1.5
39
01/08
-3.7
28
09/09
-4.4
22
09/16
5.1
81
09/23
13.0
99
10/07
3.0
70
10/11
2.7
67
10/21
0.6
54
10/28
6.4
88
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Value
Ptile
01/22
-1.1
44
02/05
3.6
74
09/05
-0.9
43
09/16
6.1
87
09/20
5.1
81
09/30
4.4
78
10/07
5.1
82
10/14
0.4
52
10/21
0.5
52
10/28
-4.6
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Giants Defense
Steelers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
21
31
Passing Yards / Game
10
13
Rushing Yards / Game
26
24

EPA

EPA / Play
18
20
EPA / Pass
14
22
EPA / Rush
29
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
32
Interceptions / Game
12
3
Fumbles / Game
28
12
Turnover EPA / Game
13
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
20
17
RZ Efficiency
12
4
Giants Offense vs Steelers Defense
Giants logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
5
Yards / Game
16
1
Passing Yards / Game
32
5
Rushing Yards / Game
14
2

EPA

EPA / Play
3
7
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
7
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
13
Interceptions / Game
14
27
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
24
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
4
4th Down Efficiency
17
29
RZ Efficiency
13
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
27
W
W
U
01/01
4
W
L
U
01/08
-6
L
L
O
09/09
-12
L
L
O
09/16
17
W
W
U
09/23
-3
L
L
O
10/07
2
W
L
U
10/11
-3
L
L
O
10/21
7
W
W
U
10/28
15
W
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/22
3
W
W
U
02/05
4
W
W
U
09/05
-7
L
L
U
09/16
7
W
L
O
09/20
29
W
W
U
09/30
-2
L
L
U
10/07
14
W
W
O
10/14
23
W
W
U
10/21
4
W
L
U
10/28
5
W
W
O