PITSteelers
5-8
24
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
47°F
7 mph
16
CARPanthers
5-8
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
47°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
7
7
3
24
Panthers
0
7
0
9
16
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
209
Total Plays
68
43
Yards / Play
4.8
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.21
+0.07
Passing Yards
169
188
Comp/Att
17/22(77%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.47
+0.42
Rushing Yards
156
21
Rush Attempts
45
16
Yards / Rush
3.5
1.3
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.53
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
13
--
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
75%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
12
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-10
-37
Sack EPA
-2.16
-2.67
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
81
40
Penalty EPA
-6.62
-2.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+22
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+40.8
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.8
Home QB Adjustment
+26.7
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+26.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
17
Yards / Game
23
22
Passing Yards / Game
20
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18
EPA
EPA / Play
19
15
EPA / Pass
16
23
EPA / Rush
11
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
24
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
26
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
23
4th Down Efficiency
3
9
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Panthers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
10
Yards / Game
29
11
Passing Yards / Game
30
8
Rushing Yards / Game
10
9
EPA
EPA / Play
20
24
EPA / Pass
24
29
EPA / Rush
9
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
18
Interceptions / Game
15
1
Fumbles / Game
7
31
Turnover EPA / Game
19
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
16
4th Down Efficiency
7
26
RZ Efficiency
12
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U