PITSteelers
1-1
21
TBD
Gillette Stadium
66°F
5 mph
14
NEPatriots
1-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
66°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
7
0
7
21
Patriots
0
7
0
7
14
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
203
369
Total Plays
49
71
Yards / Play
4.1
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
250
Comp/Att
16/23(70%)
28/37(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.04
Rushing Yards
64
119
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
26
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
44%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
4
Turnover EPA
-5.31
-26.68
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-10.34
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
59
54
Penalty EPA
-9.30
-8.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-2
Home nfelo
1,430
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
D. Maye
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
10
Yards / Game
29
16
Passing Yards / Game
26
22
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2
EPA
EPA / Play
12
17
EPA / Pass
14
28
EPA / Rush
21
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
4
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
19
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
7
31
Patriots Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
21
Yards / Game
14
28
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
25
19
EPA
EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
3
22
EPA / Rush
28
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
13
Interceptions / Game
9
4
Fumbles / Game
29
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
23
4th Down Efficiency
4
21
RZ Efficiency
8
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U