PITSteelers
1-1
31
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
69°F
10 mph
34
OAKRaiders
0-2
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
69°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
14
3
14
0
31
Raiders
7
7
7
13
34
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
433
321
Total Plays
70
56
Yards / Play
6.2
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.29
Passing Yards
379
202
Comp/Att
36/49(73%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.20
Rushing Yards
54
119
Rush Attempts
20
21
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
18
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
57%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-6.92
-5.53
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-7
Sack EPA
-0.78
-1.40
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
81
25
Penalty EPA
-10.89
-4.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-47
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+10.6
Home QB Adjustment
+12.0
Away QB Adjustment
+1.4
Market Regression
+13.3
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
28
Yards / Game
21
17
Passing Yards / Game
10
6
Rushing Yards / Game
26
17
EPA
EPA / Play
18
32
EPA / Pass
14
30
EPA / Rush
29
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
25
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
13
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
18
4th Down Efficiency
20
24
RZ Efficiency
12
21
Raiders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
18
1
Passing Yards / Game
14
5
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2
EPA
EPA / Play
23
7
EPA / Pass
19
7
EPA / Rush
31
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
16
16
Turnover EPA / Game
15
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
4
4th Down Efficiency
31
29
RZ Efficiency
28
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U