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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ raiders week 3, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
1-1
31
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
69°F
10 mph
34
OAKRaiders
0-2
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
69°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
14
3
14
0
31
Raiders
7
7
7
13
34

Spread

OAK logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
433
321
Total Plays
70
56
Yards / Play
6.2
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.29
Passing Yards
379
202
Comp/Att
36/49(73%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.20
Rushing Yards
54
119
Rush Attempts
20
21
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
18
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
57%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-6.92
-5.53
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-7
Sack EPA
-0.78
-1.40
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
81
25
Penalty EPA
-10.89
-4.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-48
Home nfelo
1,450
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+10.6
Home QB Adjustment
+12.0
Away QB Adjustment
+1.4
Market Regression
+13.5
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Value
Ptile
11/06
3.5
74
11/13
-4.0
25
11/27
-0.5
49
12/04
1.4
62
12/08
4.6
79
12/19
-5.1
18
01/01
-1.5
39
01/08
-3.7
28
09/09
-4.4
22
09/16
5.1
81
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Value
Ptile
11/10
2.8
71
11/20
-1.2
43
11/27
-4.0
24
12/04
-1.1
44
12/11
-5.6
15
12/18
7.0
90
12/24
-0.7
47
01/01
8.0
94
09/10
2.7
66
09/16
2.3
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Steelers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
22
28
Yards / Game
21
17
Passing Yards / Game
10
6
Rushing Yards / Game
26
17

EPA

EPA / Play
18
32
EPA / Pass
14
30
EPA / Rush
29
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
25
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
13
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
18
4th Down Efficiency
20
24
RZ Efficiency
12
21
Raiders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Raiders logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
18
1
Passing Yards / Game
14
5
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2

EPA

EPA / Play
23
7
EPA / Pass
19
7
EPA / Rush
31
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
16
16
Turnover EPA / Game
15
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
4
4th Down Efficiency
31
29
RZ Efficiency
28
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
7
W
W
O
11/27
4
W
L
U
12/04
28
W
W
U
12/08
11
W
L
U
12/19
-17
L
L
U
12/24
27
W
W
U
01/01
4
W
L
U
01/08
-6
L
L
O
09/09
-12
L
L
O
09/16
17
W
W
U
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
7
W
W
U
11/20
6
W
W
O
11/27
5
W
W
O
12/04
-20
L
L
O
12/11
-30
L
L
O
12/18
-1
L
P
O
12/24
3
W
W
U
01/01
-12
L
L
O
09/10
-8
L
L
U
09/16
-22
L
L
O