PITSteelers
7-4
21
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
55°F
8 mph
24
OAKRaiders
2-10
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
55°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
14
0
7
21
Raiders
7
3
0
14
24
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
354
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
5.9
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.06
Passing Yards
300
299
Comp/Att
29/38(76%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.37
Rushing Yards
40
55
Rush Attempts
19
25
Yards / Rush
2.1
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
17
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
55%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.81
-3.36
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-23
Sack EPA
-1.04
-7.39
Penalties
2
13
Penalty Yards
14
130
Penalty EPA
-1.90
-12.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
Raiders+10.0
Expected Value
+6.6%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-192
Home nfelo
1,339
Away nfelo
1,590
Home Field
+77.8
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
-18.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+17.0
Market Regression
+7.9
Final Difference
-222.8
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.0
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
32
Yards / Game
5
26
Passing Yards / Game
2
6
Rushing Yards / Game
31
30
EPA
EPA / Play
8
32
EPA / Pass
4
32
EPA / Rush
15
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
4
Interceptions / Game
26
14
Fumbles / Game
18
31
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
30
4th Down Efficiency
6
28
RZ Efficiency
2
18
Raiders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
16
Yards / Game
23
6
Passing Yards / Game
12
27
Rushing Yards / Game
25
5
EPA
EPA / Play
26
20
EPA / Pass
21
18
EPA / Rush
29
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
8
27
Fumbles / Game
31
19
Turnover EPA / Game
5
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
9
4th Down Efficiency
28
12
RZ Efficiency
22
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U