PITSteelers
1-1
12
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
06
LARRams
1-1
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
6
0
3
12
Rams
0
3
0
3
6
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
259
258
Total Plays
58
49
Yards / Play
4.5
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.28
Passing Yards
197
187
Comp/Att
25/31(81%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.34
Rushing Yards
62
71
Rush Attempts
22
18
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
12
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.19
-4.20
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-33
-10
Sack EPA
-6.50
-2.91
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
63
47
Penalty EPA
-5.71
-6.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
+14.3
Away QB Adjustment
+21.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
12
Yards / Game
3
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
18
Rushing Yards / Game
14
21
EPA
EPA / Play
9
6
EPA / Pass
12
10
EPA / Rush
7
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
32
Interceptions / Game
29
17
Fumbles / Game
7
5
Turnover EPA / Game
16
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
6
4th Down Efficiency
29
3
RZ Efficiency
13
2
Rams Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
9
Yards / Game
32
19
Passing Yards / Game
32
30
Rushing Yards / Game
7
5
EPA
EPA / Play
32
9
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
24
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
18
Interceptions / Game
10
8
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
21
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
15
4th Down Efficiency
31
4
RZ Efficiency
21
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Rams
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U