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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ rams week 7, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
3-2
24
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
17
LARRams
3-3
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
7
14
24
Rams
0
9
8
0
17

Spread

PIT logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
300
356
Total Plays
56
63
Yards / Play
5.4
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.18
Passing Yards
214
221
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
14/30(47%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.08
Rushing Yards
86
135
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
33%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.25
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-12
Sack EPA
-3.67
-2.83
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
76
40
Penalty EPA
-8.13
-5.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model60.7%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+23
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+32.7
Base HFA
+43.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-33.9
Surface Adj
+15.2
Time Adj
+7.8
Net QB Adjustment
+16.8
Home QB Adjustment
-1.8
Away QB Adjustment
-18.6
Market Regression
+32.6
Final Difference
75.2
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

K. Pickett headshot

K. Pickett

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-18.6
Value
Ptile
12/04
-1.6
42
12/11
-7.0
9
12/24
-0.2
50
01/01
-3.4
26
01/08
-1.7
40
09/10
-5.4
17
09/18
-4.3
23
09/24
0.7
54
10/01
-7.1
10
10/08
-2.8
30
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
Value
Ptile
10/16
1.2
61
10/30
1.3
61
11/06
-6.3
12
11/20
0.8
57
09/10
3.6
73
09/17
0.4
52
09/25
-8.1
8
10/01
1.3
58
10/08
-2.1
34
10/15
-2.9
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Rams Defense
Steelers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
28
18
Yards / Game
25
18
Passing Yards / Game
26
29
Rushing Yards / Game
11
13

EPA

EPA / Play
25
21
EPA / Pass
24
19
EPA / Rush
20
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
26
Interceptions / Game
5
24
Fumbles / Game
8
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
16
4th Down Efficiency
25
24
RZ Efficiency
25
20
Rams Offense vs Steelers Defense
Rams logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
8
Yards / Game
7
21
Passing Yards / Game
12
23
Rushing Yards / Game
12
21

EPA

EPA / Play
11
10
EPA / Pass
7
10
EPA / Rush
8
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
18
13
Fumbles / Game
3
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
21
4th Down Efficiency
5
11
RZ Efficiency
8
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-2
L
L
U
12/18
8
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
W
U
01/01
3
W
W
U
01/08
14
W
W
O
09/10
-23
L
L
U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/24
5
W
W
U
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
7
W
W
U
LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
-12
L
L
U
12/25
37
W
W
O
01/01
-21
L
L
U
01/08
-3
L
W
U
09/10
17
W
W
U
09/17
-7
L
W
O
09/25
-3
L
P
U
10/01
6
W
W
O
10/08
-9
L
L
U
10/15
17
W
W
U