PITSteelers
3-2
24
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
017
LARRams
3-3
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
7
14
24
Rams
0
9
8
0
17
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
356
Total Plays
56
63
Yards / Play
5.4
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.18
Passing Yards
214
221
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
14/30(47%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.08
Rushing Yards
86
135
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
33%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.25
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-12
Sack EPA
-3.67
-2.83
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
76
40
Penalty EPA
-8.13
-5.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model58.8%
Spread Pick
Steelers+3.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+18
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+32.4
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-33.6
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+16.7
Home QB Adjustment
-2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-18.7
Market Regression
+19.3
Final Difference
61.9
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.7
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
18
Yards / Game
25
18
Passing Yards / Game
26
29
Rushing Yards / Game
11
13
EPA
EPA / Play
25
21
EPA / Pass
24
19
EPA / Rush
20
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
26
Interceptions / Game
5
24
Fumbles / Game
8
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
16
4th Down Efficiency
25
24
RZ Efficiency
25
20
Rams Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
8
Yards / Game
7
21
Passing Yards / Game
12
23
Rushing Yards / Game
12
21
EPA
EPA / Play
11
10
EPA / Pass
7
10
EPA / Rush
8
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
18
13
Fumbles / Game
3
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
21
4th Down Efficiency
5
11
RZ Efficiency
8
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Rams
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U