PITSteelers
4-2
23
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
55°F
6 mph
16
BALRavens
4-4
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
55°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
7
6
3
23
Ravens
3
3
7
3
16
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
395
266
Total Plays
76
56
Yards / Play
5.2
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.06
Passing Yards
282
205
Comp/Att
29/48(60%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.03
Rushing Yards
113
61
Rush Attempts
27
16
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
18
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
63%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
10
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
75%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-14
Sack EPA
-0.42
-1.52
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
103
25
Penalty EPA
-10.09
-2.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+18
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.9
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
-33.4
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
2
Yards / Game
5
1
Passing Yards / Game
2
2
Rushing Yards / Game
31
3
EPA
EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
4
4
EPA / Rush
15
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
21
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
18
24
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
3
4th Down Efficiency
6
10
RZ Efficiency
2
21
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
12
6
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
2
5
EPA
EPA / Play
16
20
EPA / Pass
19
18
EPA / Rush
10
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
6
27
Fumbles / Game
28
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
9
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
20
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-3-1
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U