PITSteelers
8-3
13
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
35°F
17 mph
10
BALRavens
8-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
35°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
3
10
13
Ravens
7
0
3
0
10
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
269
Total Plays
65
57
Yards / Play
4.4
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.16
Passing Yards
234
226
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
17/33(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.10
Rushing Yards
54
43
Rush Attempts
24
20
Yards / Rush
2.3
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.41
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
14
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
29%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.67
-6.14
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-19
-40
Sack EPA
-4.80
-10.22
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
61
53
Penalty EPA
-6.21
-7.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+63
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.4
Home QB Adjustment
+24.6
Away QB Adjustment
+54.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+54.0
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+24.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
3
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3
EPA
EPA / Play
13
6
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
9
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
18
7
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
12
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
2
Yards / Game
22
2
Passing Yards / Game
15
17
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1
EPA
EPA / Play
10
2
EPA / Pass
10
4
EPA / Rush
18
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
8
Interceptions / Game
3
10
Fumbles / Game
17
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
22
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U