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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ ravens week 13, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
8-3
13
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
35°F
17 mph
10
BALRavens
8-3
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
35°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
3
10
13
Ravens
7
0
3
0
10

Spread

PIT logo
+3

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
288
269
Total Plays
65
57
Yards / Play
4.4
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.16
Passing Yards
234
226
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
17/33(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.10
Rushing Yards
54
43
Rush Attempts
24
20
Yards / Rush
2.3
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.41
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
17
14
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
29%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.67
-6.14
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-19
-40
Sack EPA
-4.80
-10.22
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
61
53
Penalty EPA
-6.21
-7.28

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+63
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.4
Home QB Adjustment
+24.6
Away QB Adjustment
+54.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+54.0
Value
Ptile
12/20
10.1
96
12/27
-3.6
27
01/03
3.9
75
10/17
4.3
77
10/24
3.8
75
10/31
-4.5
20
11/08
-1.1
42
11/14
2.9
69
11/21
11.8
99
11/28
-2.7
31
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.6
Value
Ptile
09/19
-10.6
2
09/26
7.5
92
10/03
2.0
61
10/10
1.5
57
10/17
5.2
84
10/24
2.2
63
11/07
2.7
67
11/11
2.0
61
11/21
3.4
72
11/28
1.6
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Steelers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
12
3
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3

EPA

EPA / Play
13
6
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
10
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
9
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
18
7
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
12
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Ravens logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
2
Yards / Game
22
2
Passing Yards / Game
15
17
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1

EPA

EPA / Play
10
2
EPA / Pass
10
4
EPA / Rush
18
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
8
Interceptions / Game
3
10
Fumbles / Game
17
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
22
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
8
W
W
U
09/26
25
W
W
O
10/03
-3
L
L
U
10/17
18
W
W
O
10/24
1
W
L
O
10/31
-10
L
L
U
11/08
6
W
W
O
11/14
-13
L
L
O
11/21
32
W
W
U
11/28
3
W
L
U
BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-5
L
L
U
09/26
7
W
L
O
10/03
3
W
W
U
10/10
14
W
W
O
10/17
-3
L
P
U
10/24
3
W
L
O
11/07
16
W
W
U
11/11
-5
L
L
O
11/21
24
W
W
O
11/28
7
W
L
U