PITSteelers
8-7
10
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
46°F
7 mph
28
BALRavens
13-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
46°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
7
3
0
10
Ravens
6
10
0
4
20
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
35
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
168
304
Total Plays
50
68
Yards / Play
3.4
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.39
-0.02
Passing Yards
77
81
Comp/Att
9/25(36%)
11/21(52%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
3.9
EPA / Pass
-0.56
-0.35
Rushing Yards
91
223
Rush Attempts
23
44
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
19
Passing 1st downs
5
3
Rushing 1st downs
4
15
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
42%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-11.24
-6.10
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-15
Sack EPA
-6.45
-3.64
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
47
35
Penalty EPA
-7.36
-2.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model48.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,693
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-110.2
Home QB Adjustment
-219.9
Away QB Adjustment
-109.7
Market Regression
+3.0
Final Difference
9.8
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
D. Hodges
Proj. Value
-6.0
Team Elo Adj
-109.7
R. McSorley
Proj. Value
-5.1
Team Elo Adj
-219.9
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
3
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
30
14
Rushing Yards / Game
29
7
EPA
EPA / Play
31
7
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
32
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
26
Interceptions / Game
28
16
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
14
4th Down Efficiency
32
3
RZ Efficiency
32
7
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
5
Yards / Game
2
5
Passing Yards / Game
23
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
2
EPA / Pass
1
4
EPA / Rush
1
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
10
2
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
30
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
6
4th Down Efficiency
5
18
RZ Efficiency
5
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
1-9
O/U
Ravens
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U