PITSteelers
7-8
16
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
44°F
2 mph
13
BALRavens
10-5
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
44°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
0
3
10
16
Ravens
0
10
3
0
13
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
35.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
351
240
Total Plays
70
50
Yards / Play
5.0
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.05
Passing Yards
153
120
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.22
Rushing Yards
198
120
Rush Attempts
41
28
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
13
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
63%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-0.33
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-10
Sack EPA
-2.95
-2.01
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
43
--
Penalty EPA
-3.95
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+22.9
Base HFA
+41.7
Divisional Adj
-18.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-87.1
Home QB Adjustment
-115.0
Away QB Adjustment
-27.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-27.9
T. Huntley
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-115.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
3
Yards / Game
23
6
Passing Yards / Game
20
31
Rushing Yards / Game
16
3
EPA
EPA / Play
19
11
EPA / Pass
16
18
EPA / Rush
11
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
21
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
4
4th Down Efficiency
3
28
RZ Efficiency
24
4
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
10
Yards / Game
16
11
Passing Yards / Game
28
8
Rushing Yards / Game
3
9
EPA
EPA / Play
12
24
EPA / Pass
21
29
EPA / Rush
5
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
18
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
18
31
Turnover EPA / Game
18
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
16
4th Down Efficiency
25
26
RZ Efficiency
30
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U