PITSteelers
8-5
28
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
NOSaints
12-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
11
14
0
28
Saints
7
10
7
7
31
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
431
370
Total Plays
72
61
Yards / Play
6.0
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.13
Passing Yards
366
313
Comp/Att
33/51(65%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.10
Rushing Yards
65
57
Rush Attempts
18
19
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.50
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
24
Passing 1st downs
21
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-7.22
-5.29
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-13
Sack EPA
-4.51
-3.24
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
79
91
Penalty EPA
-10.77
-9.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+200
Home nfelo
1,713
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+88.0
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-12.3
Home QB Adjustment
-4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+7.5
Market Regression
+2.1
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
14
Yards / Game
5
12
Passing Yards / Game
2
17
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2
EPA
EPA / Play
8
11
EPA / Pass
4
21
EPA / Rush
15
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
30
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
18
7
Turnover EPA / Game
7
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
7
RZ Efficiency
2
23
Saints Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
16
Yards / Game
8
6
Passing Yards / Game
21
27
Rushing Yards / Game
9
5
EPA
EPA / Play
2
20
EPA / Pass
2
18
EPA / Rush
13
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
29
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
23
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
9
4th Down Efficiency
2
12
RZ Efficiency
4
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U