PITSteelers
2-1
10
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
017
HOUTexans
2-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
7
3
10
Texans
7
3
0
7
17
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
318
Total Plays
57
56
Yards / Play
5.2
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.07
Passing Yards
178
--
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.24
Rushing Yards
118
180
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
5.4
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.32
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-28
--
Sack EPA
-7.44
--
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
--
64
Penalty EPA
--
-3.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model59.0%
Spread Pick
Steelers+4.0
Expected Value
+10.3%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+17
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,629
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.5
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
+7.6
Final Difference
63.1
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
4
Yards / Game
11
2
Passing Yards / Game
4
11
Rushing Yards / Game
13
2
EPA
EPA / Play
7
2
EPA / Pass
8
1
EPA / Rush
7
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
24
Interceptions / Game
18
12
Fumbles / Game
26
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
10
RZ Efficiency
15
11
Texans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
1
Yards / Game
13
1
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
2
8
EPA
EPA / Play
14
9
EPA / Pass
10
7
EPA / Rush
11
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
8
Interceptions / Game
4
25
Fumbles / Game
20
30
Turnover EPA / Game
20
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
19
4th Down Efficiency
30
28
RZ Efficiency
22
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U