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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ texans week 4, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
2-1
10
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
17
HOUTexans
2-1
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
7
3
10
Texans
7
3
0
7
17

Spread

HOU logo
-4

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
296
318
Total Plays
57
56
Yards / Play
5.2
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.07
Passing Yards
178
--
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.24
Rushing Yards
118
180
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
5.4
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.32
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-28
--
Sack EPA
-7.44
--
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
--
64
Penalty EPA
--
-3.95

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model60.3%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers+4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.3%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+19
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.5
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
+6.9
Final Difference
72.2
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
Value
Ptile
12/12
-0.4
46
12/19
1.1
55
12/23
5.1
83
01/02
7.7
93
01/15
-1.6
40
01/23
-5.1
17
02/06
4.3
77
09/11
-6.1
14
09/18
3.1
73
09/25
2.3
68
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Value
Ptile
11/21
2.4
65
11/28
2.3
64
12/02
3.6
73
12/13
2.1
63
12/19
1.4
57
12/26
3.6
73
01/02
4.5
79
09/11
-2.5
33
09/18
1.9
66
09/25
4.4
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Texans Defense
Steelers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
21
4
Yards / Game
11
2
Passing Yards / Game
4
11
Rushing Yards / Game
13
2

EPA

EPA / Play
7
2
EPA / Pass
8
1
EPA / Rush
7
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
24
Interceptions / Game
18
12
Fumbles / Game
26
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
10
RZ Efficiency
15
11
Texans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Texans logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
1
Yards / Game
13
1
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
2
8

EPA

EPA / Play
14
9
EPA / Pass
10
7
EPA / Rush
11
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
8
Interceptions / Game
4
25
Fumbles / Game
20
30
Turnover EPA / Game
20
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
19
4th Down Efficiency
30
28
RZ Efficiency
22
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
16
W
W
U
12/19
-5
L
L
O
12/23
24
W
W
U
01/02
32
W
W
O
01/15
7
W
W
O
01/23
5
W
W
O
02/06
-6
L
L
O
09/11
-28
L
L
O
09/18
24
W
W
U
09/25
3
W
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-3
L
W
O
11/28
20
W
W
U
12/02
-10
L
L
O
12/13
-6
L
L
O
12/19
-14
L
L
O
12/26
-1
L
L
U
01/02
17
W
W
O
09/11
27
W
W
U
09/18
10
W
W
U
09/25
-7
L
L
O