PITSteelers
2-1
6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
030
HOUTexans
1-2
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
6
0
6
Texans
10
6
0
14
30
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
225
451
Total Plays
56
69
Yards / Play
4.0
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.13
Passing Yards
111
--
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.53
+0.38
Rushing Yards
114
139
Rush Attempts
25
38
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
24
Passing 1st downs
4
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.96
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-6.80
--
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
18
63
Penalty EPA
-2.18
-7.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-90
Home nfelo
1,386
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+50.2
Base HFA
+42.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+18.5
Home QB Adjustment
+6.9
Away QB Adjustment
-11.6
Market Regression
+51.6
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
11
Yards / Game
25
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
8
EPA
EPA / Play
25
13
EPA / Pass
24
16
EPA / Rush
20
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
15
Interceptions / Game
5
15
Fumbles / Game
8
25
Turnover EPA / Game
27
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
6
4th Down Efficiency
25
18
RZ Efficiency
25
15
Texans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
8
Yards / Game
15
21
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21
EPA
EPA / Play
14
10
EPA / Pass
11
10
EPA / Rush
27
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
25
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
32
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
21
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
16
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U