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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ titans week 6, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
2-2
23
TBD
Nissan Stadium
64°F
2 mph
26
TENTitans
1-4
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
64°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
10
0
3
10
23
Titans
6
10
0
10
26

Spread

TEN logo
+6

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
412
359
Total Plays
63
69
Yards / Play
6.5
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.09
Passing Yards
356
265
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
25/44(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.03
Rushing Yards
56
94
Rush Attempts
22
22
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
47%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.43
-4.52
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-25
Sack EPA
-2.14
-5.17
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
50
45
Penalty EPA
-5.09
-4.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-143
Home nfelo
1,400
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-35.9
Home QB Adjustment
-16.9
Away QB Adjustment
+19.0
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.0
Value
Ptile
11/27
-0.5
49
12/04
1.4
62
12/08
4.6
79
12/19
-5.1
18
01/01
-1.5
39
01/08
-3.7
28
09/09
-4.4
22
09/16
5.1
81
09/23
13.0
99
10/07
3.0
70
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-16.9
Value
Ptile
11/06
3.2
73
11/13
-0.1
51
11/20
-4.1
24
11/27
-7.2
9
12/04
-2.9
32
12/11
-4.5
21
12/18
-3.4
28
12/24
-0.1
52
01/01
4.0
77
10/07
-2.7
32

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Titans Defense
Steelers logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
22
32
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
10
27
Rushing Yards / Game
26
23

EPA

EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
14
23
EPA / Rush
29
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
11
Interceptions / Game
12
5
Fumbles / Game
28
31
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
22
4th Down Efficiency
20
9
RZ Efficiency
12
30
Titans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Titans logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
5
Yards / Game
26
1
Passing Yards / Game
25
5
Rushing Yards / Game
21
2

EPA

EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
23
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
23
16
Turnover EPA / Game
8
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
4
4th Down Efficiency
27
29
RZ Efficiency
22
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
28
W
W
U
12/08
11
W
L
U
12/19
-17
L
L
U
12/24
27
W
W
U
01/01
4
W
L
U
01/08
-6
L
L
O
09/09
-12
L
L
O
09/16
17
W
W
U
09/23
-3
L
L
O
10/07
2
W
L
U
TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
6
W
W
U
12/11
-5
L
L
U
12/18
-14
L
L
U
12/24
6
W
L
O
01/01
1
W
P
O
09/09
-21
L
L
U
09/16
-28
L
L
O
09/23
3
W
W
O
09/30
-24
L
L
O
10/07
-23
L
L
U