PITSteelers
2-2
23
TBD
Nissan Stadium
64°F
2 mph
26
TENTitans
1-4
TBD
Nissan Stadium
64°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
10
0
3
10
23
Titans
6
10
0
10
26
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
412
359
Total Plays
63
69
Yards / Play
6.5
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.09
Passing Yards
356
265
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
25/44(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.03
Rushing Yards
56
94
Rush Attempts
22
22
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
47%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.43
-4.52
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-25
Sack EPA
-2.14
-5.17
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
50
45
Penalty EPA
-5.09
-4.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-143
Home nfelo
1,402
Away nfelo
1,583
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-35.9
Home QB Adjustment
-16.9
Away QB Adjustment
+19.0
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.0
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-16.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
32
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
10
27
Rushing Yards / Game
26
23
EPA
EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
14
23
EPA / Rush
29
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
11
Interceptions / Game
12
5
Fumbles / Game
28
31
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
22
4th Down Efficiency
20
9
RZ Efficiency
12
30
Titans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
5
Yards / Game
26
1
Passing Yards / Game
25
5
Rushing Yards / Game
21
2
EPA
EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
23
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
23
16
Turnover EPA / Game
8
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
4
4th Down Efficiency
27
29
RZ Efficiency
22
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Titans
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U