HOUTexans
0-1
20
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
023
CHIBears
1-1
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
7
6
0
20
Bears
10
3
7
3
23
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
329
363
Total Plays
57
62
Yards / Play
5.8
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.03
Passing Yards
237
82
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
8/17(47%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.45
Rushing Yards
92
281
Rush Attempts
24
40
Yards / Rush
3.8
7.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
9
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
25%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.57
-6.47
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-8
-24
Sack EPA
-2.12
-6.53
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
25
32
Penalty EPA
-1.56
-4.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,383
Away nfelo
1,400
Home Field
+51.0
Base HFA
+37.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.6
Home QB Adjustment
-10.9
Away QB Adjustment
-14.6
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-14.6
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
31
29
Passing Yards / Game
22
6
Rushing Yards / Game
31
31
EPA
EPA / Play
31
32
EPA / Pass
31
32
EPA / Rush
31
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
4
Interceptions / Game
31
13
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
28
27
Bears Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
28
30
Passing Yards / Game
32
17
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32
EPA
EPA / Play
21
12
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
2
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
22
7
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
26
RZ Efficiency
13
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
3-6-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U