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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ bears week 3, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
0-1
20
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
0
23
CHIBears
1-1
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
7
6
0
20
Bears
10
3
7
3
23

Spread

HOU logo
CHI logo
3
P

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
329
363
Total Plays
57
62
Yards / Play
5.8
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.03
Passing Yards
237
82
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
8/17(47%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.45
Rushing Yards
92
281
Rush Attempts
24
40
Yards / Rush
3.8
7.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
9
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
25%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.57
-6.47
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-8
-24
Sack EPA
-2.12
-6.53
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
25
32
Penalty EPA
-1.56
-4.04

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+39
Home nfelo
1,385
Away nfelo
1,401
Home Field
+51.0
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.6
Home QB Adjustment
-10.9
Away QB Adjustment
-14.6
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Mills headshot

D. Mills

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-14.6
Value
Ptile
10/17
-6.2
14
10/24
-3.6
27
10/31
1.5
64
12/12
2.9
75
12/19
-2.2
36
12/26
3.7
79
01/02
-5.3
17
01/09
5.7
87
09/11
-0.4
49
09/18
-7.0
9
J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
Value
Ptile
10/10
-5.7
16
10/17
-4.1
24
10/24
-9.3
5
10/31
2.9
74
11/08
0.6
57
11/21
-5.6
16
12/12
0.6
57
12/20
2.0
68
09/11
-4.6
21
09/18
-6.6
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Bears Defense
Texans logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
31
29
Passing Yards / Game
22
6
Rushing Yards / Game
31
31

EPA

EPA / Play
31
32
EPA / Pass
31
32
EPA / Rush
31
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
4
Interceptions / Game
31
13
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
28
27
Bears Offense vs Texans Defense
Bears logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
28
30
Passing Yards / Game
32
17
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32

EPA

EPA / Play
21
12
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
2
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
22
7
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
26
RZ Efficiency
13
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

3-6-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
9
W
W
U
11/28
-7
L
L
U
12/05
-31
L
L
U
12/12
-20
L
L
O
12/19
14
W
W
O
12/26
12
W
W
O
01/02
-16
L
L
U
01/09
-3
L
W
O
09/11
0
T
W
U
09/18
-7
L
W
U
CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-3
L
W
U
11/25
2
W
P
U
12/05
-11
L
L
O
12/12
-15
L
L
O
12/20
-8
L
L
U
12/26
1
W
W
O
01/02
26
W
W
U
01/09
-14
L
L
O
09/11
9
W
W
U
09/18
-17
L
L
U