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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ bills week 4, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
1-2
0
TBD
New Era Field
67°F
12 mph
40
BUFBills
2-1
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
67°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
0
0
0
Bills
7
9
3
21
40

Spread

BUF logo
-18.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
109
450
Total Plays
42
72
Yards / Play
2.6
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.93
+0.09
Passing Yards
61
251
Comp/Att
11/21(52%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
2.9
8.1
EPA / Pass
-1.35
+0.08
Rushing Yards
48
199
Rush Attempts
18
40
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.37
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
6
26
Passing 1st downs
4
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
11%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
0%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
7
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-21.45
-7.02
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-5
Sack EPA
-4.81
-1.03
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
100
30
Penalty EPA
-12.97
-2.07

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-17.5
Current
-18.5
Model
-18.5

Win Probability

Market92.5%
Model92.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+412
Home nfelo
1,625
Away nfelo
1,415
Home Field
+50.1
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.6
Net QB Adjustment
+150.9
Home QB Adjustment
+15.8
Away QB Adjustment
-135.0
Market Regression
+23.6
Final Difference
436.4
Model Spread
-18.5

Quarterbacks

D. Mills headshot

D. Mills

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-135.0
Value
Ptile
09/23
-3.9
25
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
Value
Ptile
12/13
3.2
68
12/19
13.0
99
12/28
13.5
99
01/03
2.1
59
01/09
9.2
95
01/16
-1.3
35
01/24
3.1
67
09/12
2.3
70
09/19
-1.5
42
09/26
13.9
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Bills Defense
Texans logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
32
1
Passing Yards / Game
22
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
16

EPA

EPA / Play
30
3
EPA / Pass
28
2
EPA / Rush
30
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
13
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
1
4th Down Efficiency
27
15
RZ Efficiency
27
10
Bills Offense vs Texans Defense
Bills logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
3
27
Yards / Game
5
31
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
6
31

EPA

EPA / Play
2
26
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
1
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
9
Interceptions / Game
19
8
Fumbles / Game
10
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
26
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
2
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
7
W
W
U
11/26
16
W
W
O
12/06
-6
L
L
U
12/13
-29
L
L
U
12/20
-7
L
W
U
12/27
-6
L
L
O
01/03
-3
L
W
O
09/12
16
W
W
O
09/19
-10
L
W
O
09/23
-15
L
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
11
W
W
U
12/19
29
W
W
O
12/28
29
W
W
P
01/03
30
W
W
O
01/09
3
W
L
O
01/16
14
W
W
U
01/24
-14
L
L
O
09/12
-7
L
L
U
09/19
35
W
W
U
09/26
22
W
W
O