HOUTexans
1-2
0
TBD
New Era Field
67°F
12 mph
40
BUFBills
2-1
TBD
New Era Field
67°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
0
0
0
Bills
7
9
3
21
40
Spread
-18.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
109
450
Total Plays
42
72
Yards / Play
2.6
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.93
+0.09
Passing Yards
61
251
Comp/Att
11/21(52%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
2.9
8.1
EPA / Pass
-1.35
+0.08
Rushing Yards
48
199
Rush Attempts
18
40
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.37
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
6
26
Passing 1st downs
4
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
11%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
0%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-21.45
-7.02
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-5
Sack EPA
-4.81
-1.03
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
100
30
Penalty EPA
-12.97
-2.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-17.5
Current
-18.5
Model
-18.5
Win Probability
Market92.5%
Model92.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+412
Home nfelo
1,625
Away nfelo
1,415
Home Field
+50.1
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.6
Net QB Adjustment
+150.9
Home QB Adjustment
+15.8
Away QB Adjustment
-135.0
Market Regression
+23.6
Final Difference
436.4
Model Spread
-18.5
Quarterbacks
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-135.0
Value
Ptile
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
32
1
Passing Yards / Game
22
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
16
EPA
EPA / Play
30
3
EPA / Pass
28
2
EPA / Rush
30
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
13
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
1
4th Down Efficiency
27
15
RZ Efficiency
27
10
Bills Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
27
Yards / Game
5
31
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
6
31
EPA
EPA / Play
2
26
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
1
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
9
Interceptions / Game
19
8
Fumbles / Game
10
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
26
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
2
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U