nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ broncos week 2, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

HOU logo
HOUTexans
0-0
9
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
0
16
DENBroncos
0-1
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
3
3
0
9
Broncos
3
3
0
10
16

Spread

HOU logo
+10

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
234
350
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
4.0
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.05
Passing Yards
154
201
Comp/Att
19/38(50%)
14/31(45%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.01
Rushing Yards
80
149
Rush Attempts
18
31
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
15%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.80
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-23
-18
Sack EPA
-4.44
-4.18
Penalties
8
13
Penalty Yards
94
100
Penalty EPA
-8.12
-8.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model78.4%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+57.1
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.1
Time Adj
+6.7
Net QB Adjustment
+17.9
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-7.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
224.0
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

D. Mills headshot

D. Mills

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
Value
Ptile
10/10
5.4
85
10/17
-6.2
14
10/24
-3.6
27
10/31
1.5
64
12/12
2.9
75
12/19
-2.2
36
12/26
3.7
79
01/02
-5.3
17
01/09
5.7
87
09/11
-0.4
49
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Value
Ptile
11/14
-9.0
6
11/21
-6.3
13
11/29
0.8
59
12/05
0.4
56
12/12
3.1
76
12/21
-7.6
9
12/26
-0.9
46
01/02
5.4
85
01/09
2.7
73
09/12
3.6
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Texans logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
31
8
Passing Yards / Game
22
9
Rushing Yards / Game
31
10

EPA

EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
31
7
EPA / Rush
31
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
1
Interceptions / Game
31
11
Fumbles / Game
20
20
Turnover EPA / Game
3
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
30
RZ Efficiency
28
8
Broncos Offense vs Texans Defense
Broncos logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
32
27
Yards / Game
21
30
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
21
32

EPA

EPA / Play
28
12
EPA / Pass
29
13
EPA / Rush
27
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
22
7
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
14
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
14
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

3-6-1
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
-8
L
L
U
11/21
9
W
W
U
11/28
-7
L
L
U
12/05
-31
L
L
U
12/12
-20
L
L
O
12/19
14
W
W
O
12/26
12
W
W
O
01/02
-16
L
L
U
01/09
-3
L
W
O
09/11
0
T
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
14
W
W
U
11/14
-17
L
L
U
11/28
15
W
W
U
12/05
-13
L
L
U
12/12
28
W
W
O
12/19
-5
L
L
U
12/26
-4
L
L
U
01/02
-21
L
L
O
01/08
-4
L
W
O
09/12
-1
L
L
U