HOUTexans
0-0
9
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
016
DENBroncos
0-1
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
3
3
0
9
Broncos
3
3
0
10
16
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
234
350
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
4.0
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.05
Passing Yards
154
201
Comp/Att
19/38(50%)
14/31(45%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.01
Rushing Yards
80
149
Rush Attempts
18
31
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
15%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.80
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-23
-18
Sack EPA
-4.44
-4.18
Penalties
8
13
Penalty Yards
94
100
Penalty EPA
-8.12
-8.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+182
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,400
Home Field
+57.2
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.1
Time Adj
+6.7
Net QB Adjustment
+17.9
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-7.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
232.7
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
31
8
Passing Yards / Game
22
9
Rushing Yards / Game
31
10
EPA
EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
31
7
EPA / Rush
31
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
1
Interceptions / Game
31
11
Fumbles / Game
20
20
Turnover EPA / Game
3
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
30
RZ Efficiency
28
8
Broncos Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
27
Yards / Game
21
30
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
21
32
EPA
EPA / Play
28
12
EPA / Pass
29
13
EPA / Rush
27
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
22
7
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
14
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
14
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
3-6-1
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U