HOUTexans
5-3
19
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
53°F
3 mph
17
DENBroncos
3-5
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
53°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
9
0
3
19
Broncos
3
7
7
0
17
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
348
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.06
Passing Yards
192
273
Comp/Att
17/24(71%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.06
Rushing Yards
98
75
Rush Attempts
33
20
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.61
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-21
-17
Sack EPA
-6.37
-3.88
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
60
50
Penalty EPA
-5.34
-7.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model53.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+88.5
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-14.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+20.6
Market Regression
+1.9
Final Difference
24.2
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.6
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
12
Yards / Game
15
22
Passing Yards / Game
10
28
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22
EPA
EPA / Play
15
10
EPA / Pass
13
17
EPA / Rush
21
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
23
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
17
15
Turnover EPA / Game
32
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
13
RZ Efficiency
28
14
Broncos Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
5
Yards / Game
19
14
Passing Yards / Game
14
22
Rushing Yards / Game
11
4
EPA
EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
26
13
EPA / Rush
8
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
1
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
21
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
25
4th Down Efficiency
10
21
RZ Efficiency
18
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U