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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ broncos week 9, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
5-3
19
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
53°F
3 mph
17
DENBroncos
3-5
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
53°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
9
0
3
19
Broncos
3
7
7
0
17

Spread

HOU logo
+1

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
290
348
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.06
Passing Yards
192
273
Comp/Att
17/24(71%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.06
Rushing Yards
98
75
Rush Attempts
33
20
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.61
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-21
-17
Sack EPA
-6.37
-3.88
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
60
50
Penalty EPA
-5.34
-7.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model53.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+89.6
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
+10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-14.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+20.6
Market Regression
+2.2
Final Difference
24.4
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.6
Value
Ptile
10/15
1.2
61
10/29
5.2
85
09/09
-4.7
19
09/16
2.9
69
09/23
3.8
73
09/30
3.9
74
10/07
7.0
89
10/14
-11.1
2
10/21
-2.7
29
10/25
10.0
96
C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Value
Ptile
01/14
0.9
59
01/21
-1.5
42
09/09
1.8
60
09/16
-1.7
35
09/23
-4.5
20
10/01
-6.2
12
10/07
2.9
69
10/14
1.8
60
10/18
-4.0
22
10/28
-1.8
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Texans logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
12
12
Yards / Game
15
22
Passing Yards / Game
10
28
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22

EPA

EPA / Play
15
10
EPA / Pass
13
17
EPA / Rush
21
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
23
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
17
15
Turnover EPA / Game
32
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
13
RZ Efficiency
28
14
Broncos Offense vs Texans Defense
Broncos logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
24
5
Yards / Game
19
14
Passing Yards / Game
14
22
Rushing Yards / Game
11
4

EPA

EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
26
13
EPA / Rush
8
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
1
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
21
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
25
4th Down Efficiency
10
21
RZ Efficiency
18
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
-28
L
L
U
12/31
-9
L
L
U
09/09
-7
L
L
U
09/16
-3
L
L
U
09/23
-5
L
L
O
09/30
3
W
W
O
10/07
3
W
L
U
10/14
7
W
L
U
10/21
13
W
W
U
10/25
19
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-16
L
L
U
12/31
-3
L
L
O
09/09
3
W
P
O
09/16
1
W
L
U
09/23
-13
L
L
U
10/01
-4
L
L
U
10/07
-18
L
L
O
10/14
-3
L
W
U
10/18
35
W
W
O
10/28
-7
L
W
P