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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ chiefs week 19, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
11-6
31
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0
51
KCChiefs
12-4
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
15
3
7
0
25
Chiefs
0
28
13
10
51

Spread

KC logo
-10

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
442
434
Total Plays
78
57
Yards / Play
5.7
7.6
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.34
Passing Yards
348
316
Comp/Att
31/52(60%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.52
Rushing Yards
94
118
Rush Attempts
21
21
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
23
29
Passing 1st downs
18
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
50%
88%
Red Zone Conversions
2
7
Red Zone Attempts
4
8
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-0.30
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-40
-5
Sack EPA
-8.64
-0.87
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
87
37
Penalty EPA
-9.25
-2.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model82.1%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs-10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.5%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+296
Home nfelo
1,677
Away nfelo
1,489
Home Field
+74.9
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+13.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.4
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
+4.0
Final Difference
264.5
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
10/20
-1.1
46
10/27
4.3
80
11/03
5.9
86
11/17
-10.0
4
11/21
1.8
66
12/01
4.4
81
12/08
2.2
67
12/15
0.7
57
12/21
-7.9
9
01/04
2.9
72
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Value
Ptile
10/06
-1.2
45
10/13
0.0
52
10/17
-0.3
50
11/10
11.0
99
11/18
0.9
59
12/01
-0.5
48
12/08
2.6
69
12/15
4.4
81
12/22
7.2
91
12/29
-1.4
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Texans logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
11
17
Passing Yards / Game
17
15
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25

EPA

EPA / Play
8
16
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
6
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
18
4
Fumbles / Game
17
24
Turnover EPA / Game
18
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
10
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
9
10
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Chiefs logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
2
23
Yards / Game
4
28
Passing Yards / Game
5
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
24

EPA

EPA / Play
2
26
EPA / Pass
2
25
EPA / Rush
7
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
3
Interceptions / Game
3
23
Fumbles / Game
14
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
31
4th Down Efficiency
3
9
RZ Efficiency
11
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
3
W
L
U
11/03
23
W
W
U
11/17
-34
L
L
U
11/21
3
W
L
U
12/01
6
W
W
O
12/08
-14
L
L
O
12/15
3
W
W
U
12/21
3
W
P
U
12/29
-21
L
L
O
01/04
3
W
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
24
W
W
U
10/27
-7
L
L
O
11/03
3
W
W
O
11/10
-3
L
L
O
11/18
7
W
W
U
12/01
31
W
W
U
12/08
7
W
W
U
12/15
20
W
W
U
12/22
23
W
W
U
12/29
10
W
P
O