HOUTexans
11-6
31
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
051
KCChiefs
12-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
15
3
7
0
25
Chiefs
0
28
13
10
51
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
442
434
Total Plays
78
57
Yards / Play
5.7
7.6
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.34
Passing Yards
348
316
Comp/Att
31/52(60%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.52
Rushing Yards
94
118
Rush Attempts
21
21
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
29
Passing 1st downs
18
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
50%
88%
Red Zone Conversions
2
7
Red Zone Attempts
4
8
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-0.30
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-40
-5
Sack EPA
-8.64
-0.87
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
87
37
Penalty EPA
-9.25
-2.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model81.5%
Spread Pick
Chiefs-10.0
Expected Value
+6.5%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+292
Home nfelo
1,675
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+74.9
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+13.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.4
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
+0.7
Final Difference
257.0
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
11
17
Passing Yards / Game
17
15
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25
EPA
EPA / Play
8
16
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
6
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
18
4
Fumbles / Game
17
24
Turnover EPA / Game
18
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
10
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
9
10
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
23
Yards / Game
4
28
Passing Yards / Game
5
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
24
EPA
EPA / Play
2
26
EPA / Pass
2
25
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
3
Interceptions / Game
3
23
Fumbles / Game
14
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
31
4th Down Efficiency
3
9
RZ Efficiency
11
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U