HOUTexans
11-7
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
23°F
17 mph
23
KCChiefs
15-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
23°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
3
6
0
12
Chiefs
6
7
0
10
23
Spread
-8.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
336
212
Total Plays
65
50
Yards / Play
5.2
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.13
Passing Yards
187
162
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.02
Rushing Yards
149
50
Rush Attempts
29
22
Yards / Rush
5.1
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
59%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
10
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
8
3
Sack Yards
-58
-15
Sack EPA
-13.27
-4.48
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
82
29
Penalty EPA
-11.48
-2.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model73.1%
Spread Pick
Texans+8.5
Expected Value
+14.0%
Cover Probability
59.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+99
Home nfelo
1,554
Away nfelo
1,564
Home Field
+63.7
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.2
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+36.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.6
Away QB Adjustment
-21.9
Market Regression
+33.3
Final Difference
173.4
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-21.9
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
17
9
Passing Yards / Game
11
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
10
EPA
EPA / Play
22
16
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
26
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
15
Interceptions / Game
16
17
Fumbles / Game
16
26
Turnover EPA / Game
21
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
24
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
28
11
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
19
2
Passing Yards / Game
19
11
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9
EPA
EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
12
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
3
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
5
17
Turnover EPA / Game
22
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
3
4th Down Efficiency
6
23
RZ Efficiency
21
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U