nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ chiefs week 20, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

HOU logo
HOUTexans
11-7
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
23°F
17 mph
23
KCChiefs
15-2
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
23°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
3
6
0
12
Chiefs
6
7
0
10
23

Spread

KC logo
-8.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
336
212
Total Plays
65
50
Yards / Play
5.2
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.13
Passing Yards
187
162
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.02
Rushing Yards
149
50
Rush Attempts
29
22
Yards / Rush
5.1
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
59%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
10
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
8
3
Sack Yards
-58
-15
Sack EPA
-13.27
-4.48
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
82
29
Penalty EPA
-11.48
-2.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model73.0%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+8.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.0%
Cover Probability
59.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+96
Home nfelo
1,553
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+63.2
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+36.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.6
Away QB Adjustment
-22.0
Market Regression
+36.7
Final Difference
173.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-22.0
Value
Ptile
10/27
-0.2
48
10/31
-8.2
5
11/10
-7.2
8
11/18
0.4
51
11/24
-4.3
21
12/01
-2.2
33
12/15
-3.7
24
12/21
-1.0
41
12/25
-8.4
4
01/11
1.0
55
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Value
Ptile
10/27
2.8
68
11/04
4.3
76
11/10
1.1
56
11/17
-0.4
46
11/24
5.8
83
11/29
-3.6
24
12/08
-0.3
47
12/15
1.5
59
12/21
8.0
93
12/25
11.3
98

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Texans logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
17
9
Passing Yards / Game
11
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
10

EPA

EPA / Play
22
16
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
26
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
15
Interceptions / Game
16
17
Fumbles / Game
16
26
Turnover EPA / Game
21
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
24
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
28
11
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Chiefs logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
19
2
Passing Yards / Game
19
11
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9

EPA

EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
12
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
3
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
5
17
Turnover EPA / Game
22
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
3
4th Down Efficiency
6
23
RZ Efficiency
21
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
-8
L
L
U
11/10
-3
L
W
U
11/18
24
W
W
O
11/24
-5
L
L
O
12/01
3
W
L
U
12/15
8
W
W
U
12/21
-8
L
L
O
12/25
-29
L
L
U
01/05
9
W
W
O
01/11
20
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
6
W
L
O
11/10
2
W
L
U
11/17
-9
L
L
O
11/24
3
W
L
O
11/29
2
W
L
U
12/08
2
W
L
U
12/15
14
W
W
U
12/21
8
W
W
O
12/25
19
W
W
U
01/05
-38
L
L
U