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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ colts week 4, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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HOU logo
HOUTexans
0-3
37
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
34
INDColts
1-2
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Texans
8
7
7
3
6
31
Colts
7
3
7
14
3
34

Spread

HOU logo
-1

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
466
480
Total Plays
84
85
Yards / Play
5.5
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.04
Passing Yards
347
439
Comp/Att
29/42(69%)
40/64(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.18
Rushing Yards
119
41
Rush Attempts
35
17
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.79
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
30
28
Passing 1st downs
23
23
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
8
10
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.83
-12.10
Sacks
7
4
Sack Yards
-28
-27
Sack EPA
-8.31
-9.68
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
54
85
Penalty EPA
-6.78
-9.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model47.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+41.7
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+3.5
Home QB Adjustment
+26.5
Away QB Adjustment
+23.1
Market Regression
-2.4
Final Difference
19.8
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
Value
Ptile
09/14
1.6
64
09/24
1.7
66
10/01
9.6
97
10/08
6.5
89
10/15
1.2
61
10/29
5.2
85
09/09
-4.7
19
09/16
2.9
69
09/23
3.8
73
A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+26.5
Value
Ptile
11/06
-2.2
32
11/20
-1.2
39
12/05
10.2
96
12/11
-0.1
47
12/18
6.7
89
12/24
4.1
79
01/01
0.6
54
09/09
5.3
82
09/16
-1.6
36
09/23
0.3
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Texans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
15
11
Passing Yards / Game
10
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
9

EPA

EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
21
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
31
Interceptions / Game
6
13
Fumbles / Game
17
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
28
11
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Colts logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
8
5
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
4

EPA

EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
10
13
EPA / Rush
18
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
22
10
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
25
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
7
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
10
W
W
O
11/27
-7
L
W
U
12/03
-11
L
L
U
12/10
-10
L
L
U
12/17
-38
L
L
O
12/25
-28
L
L
U
12/31
-9
L
L
U
09/09
-7
L
L
U
09/16
-3
L
L
U
09/23
-5
L
L
O
IND logo

Colts

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
-3
L
W
U
11/26
-4
L
L
U
12/03
-20
L
L
U
12/10
-6
L
L
U
12/14
-12
L
L
U
12/23
-7
L
W
U
12/31
9
W
W
U
09/09
-11
L
L
O
09/16
12
W
W
U
09/23
-4
L
W
U