HOUTexans
0-3
37
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
034
INDColts
1-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Texans
8
7
7
3
6
31
Colts
7
3
7
14
3
34
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
466
480
Total Plays
84
85
Yards / Play
5.5
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.04
Passing Yards
347
439
Comp/Att
29/42(69%)
40/64(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.18
Rushing Yards
119
41
Rush Attempts
35
17
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.79
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
28
Passing 1st downs
23
23
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
8
10
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.83
-12.10
Sacks
7
4
Sack Yards
-28
-27
Sack EPA
-8.31
-9.68
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
54
85
Penalty EPA
-6.78
-9.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model47.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+41.2
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+3.5
Home QB Adjustment
+26.5
Away QB Adjustment
+23.1
Market Regression
-3.1
Final Difference
19.1
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+26.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
15
11
Passing Yards / Game
10
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
9
EPA
EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
21
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
31
Interceptions / Game
6
13
Fumbles / Game
17
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
28
11
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
5
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
4
EPA
EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
10
13
EPA / Rush
18
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
22
10
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
25
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
7
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Colts
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
1-9
O/U