HOUTexans
4-2
23
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
030
INDColts
3-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
9
7
7
23
Colts
7
7
14
0
28
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
391
383
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
6.4
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.03
Passing Yards
291
321
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
26/40(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.44
Rushing Yards
100
62
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.48
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
15
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
--
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.46
-4.90
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-17
-5
Sack EPA
-3.34
-1.39
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
54
--
Penalty EPA
-11.87
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model50.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-20
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+72.1
Base HFA
+52.9
Divisional Adj
-23.8
Home Bye Adj
+15.2
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.4
Time Adj
+9.4
Net QB Adjustment
-33.4
Home QB Adjustment
-6.7
Away QB Adjustment
+26.7
Market Regression
-2.0
Final Difference
6.0
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.7
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
11
16
Passing Yards / Game
17
18
Rushing Yards / Game
9
5
EPA
EPA / Play
8
17
EPA / Pass
13
21
EPA / Rush
6
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
24
Interceptions / Game
18
6
Fumbles / Game
17
20
Turnover EPA / Game
18
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
27
4th Down Efficiency
18
10
RZ Efficiency
9
9
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
23
Yards / Game
25
28
Passing Yards / Game
25
25
Rushing Yards / Game
5
24
EPA
EPA / Play
18
26
EPA / Pass
23
25
EPA / Rush
2
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
3
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
12
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
3
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U